Cognex combines a high-quality balance sheet with excellent cash conversion and strong 24% revenue growth, but a forward price-to-earnings of 37.4x leaves little margin for error and the current reward-to-risk of 0.59-to-1 is well below any reasonable asymmetry bar.
Thesis pillars
- Excellent Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Premium Valuation Leaves No Margin↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
Wait for pullback to $50.41. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $53.06. Engine's entry $50.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
Cognex makes machine vision systems, sensors, vision software, and barcode readers for factory and warehouse automation, selling globally across logistics, packaging, consumer electronics, and automotive markets. With 67% of 2025 revenue from international customers, the company... Read more
Wait for pullback to $50.41. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $53.06. Engine's entry $50.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.33, quality 7.6/10, growth 8.3/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Cognex Corporation
About Cognex Corporation
67% of Cognex's revenue in 2025 came from customers outside the United States, with approximately 25% from Europe, 16% from Greater China, and 26% from other international regions. The company employed 2,745 people at December 31, 2025 and spent $139 million on research, development, and engineering — 14% of revenue. Cognex's four largest end markets — logistics, packaging, consumer electronics, and automotive — combined for approximately 85% of total 2025 revenue.
Cognex sells machine vision systems, sensors, vision software, and barcode readers through a direct sales force complemented by OEM, distribution, and system integrator partners. Hardware products including In-Sight vision systems and DataMan barcode readers are assembled by contract manufacturers primarily in Indonesia and Malaysia, with optical components manufactured at in-house plants in China and Vietnam acquired through the 2023 Moritex Corporation acquisition ($270 million enterprise value). Service offerings represent less than 10% of total revenue. In 2025, Cognex launched OneVision, a cloud-based platform for AI model training and deployment, and its first SLX logistics-focused devices. The company's salesforce transformation in 2025 restructured the go-to-market model around three teams: market creation, market penetration, and partner enablement. U.S. export controls affecting Chinese semiconductor companies have had a negative impact on China revenue, though the company characterized the impact as immaterial to total revenue through year-end 2025.
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The most concentrated supply chain dependency is Cognex's reliance on a primary contract manufacturer located in Indonesia. The 10-K notes that production and test equipment unique to Cognex products creates practical challenges to shifting production in a timely manner even when the manufacturer has plants elsewhere — a risk that materialized in 2022 when a fire at the Indonesian facility destroyed significant inventories and delayed shipments through the first half of 2023. This single-site dependency, combined with exposure to U.S.-China trade restrictions affecting both Greater China revenue (16% of 2025 sales) and component sourcing from Chinese suppliers, could weigh on results if geopolitical conditions deteriorate further.
See also: Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
From Cognex Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Cognex Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Cognex (NASDAQ:CGNX) reports Q3 2026 in line with expectations but stock drops - StockStory — StockStory Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CGNX Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 313.62M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Cognex, Insight Enterprises, and SAIC Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know - StockStory — StockStory Oct 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Cognex, Insight Enterprises, and SAIC Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know - TradingView — TradingView Oct 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Why Cognex (CGNX) Stock Is Falling Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 7, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
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Quality Signals
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $50.41. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $53.06. Engine's entry $50.41 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.33, quality 7.6/10, growth 8.3/10). Target $71.43 (+34.6%), stop $46.88 (−13.2%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $71.43 (+34.6% upside). Target $71.43 (+34.6%), stop $46.88 (−13.2%), A.R:R 3.0:1. Stop-loss: $46.88.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum.
Cognex Corporation trades at a P/E of 55.9 (forward 26.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
28 analysts rate CGNX, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $79.
What does Cognex Corporation do?Cognex makes machine vision systems, sensors, vision software, and barcode readers for factory and warehouse...
Cognex makes machine vision systems, sensors, vision software, and barcode readers for factory and warehouse automation, selling globally across logistics, packaging, consumer electronics, and automotive markets. With 67% of 2025 revenue from international customers, the company earns primarily through hardware and software product sales, with service revenue under 10% of total. Products are assembled by contract manufacturers in Indonesia and Malaysia, with optical components manufactured in China and Vietnam.