Value
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 7.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 3.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.9x
- ▸PEG: 3.65
BMI · Why this verdict
Why Badger Meter (BMI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue has fallen 9% year-over-year and three of the last four quarters delivered earnings below consensus, including a 24% miss in the most recent quarter, pointing to deteriorating business momentum rather than a temporary soft patch. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year and at least 3 of 4 rolling quarters deliver positive earnings surprises over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA recovery in municipal infrastructure spending or a large contract award within the utility water segment could restore order volumes quickly given the concentrated nature of the customer base. | ||
Utility water products represent 89% of revenue and key inputs — brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies — rely on single suppliers, meaning any supply disruption or demand softness in that one channel could disproportionately impair the business. Bear case | Utility water revenue concentration falls below 75% as adjacent product lines grow, or management discloses dual-sourcing for at least one currently single-source material within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLong-cycle municipal procurement relationships may insulate revenue even in a broader economic slowdown, making the concentration a source of stability rather than a vulnerability in practice. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with that average's slope declining 6.1% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that has not yet been resolved despite some improvement in short-term momentum signals. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 30 consecutive trading days, with the moving average slope flattening or turning positive. | →Stable |
| CounterRising on-balance volume indicates institutional accumulation beneath the surface; if buyers sustain this pace, the moving average could flatten and the downtrend could reverse before the stock deteriorates materially. | ||
With 20% of the float sold short and implied volatility at 77%, there is a significant positioning overhang that could amplify price swings in either direction and adds meaningful uncertainty to any near-term position outcome. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 10% of float within 12 months, either through fundamental improvement that removes the bearish thesis or through a short-covering event. | →Stable |
| CounterIf fundamental deterioration continues, the elevated short interest may prove directionally correct rather than a contrarian signal, and the high implied volatility accurately reflects genuine uncertainty about the business trajectory. | ||
Revenue has fallen 9% year-over-year and three of the last four quarters delivered earnings below consensus, including a 24% miss in the most recent quarter, pointing to deteriorating business momentum rather than a temporary soft patch.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year and at least 3 of 4 rolling quarters deliver positive earnings surprises over the next 12 months.
CounterA recovery in municipal infrastructure spending or a large contract award within the utility water segment could restore order volumes quickly given the concentrated nature of the customer base.
Utility water products represent 89% of revenue and key inputs — brass castings, resins, and electronic subassemblies — rely on single suppliers, meaning any supply disruption or demand softness in that one channel could disproportionately impair the business.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Utility water revenue concentration falls below 75% as adjacent product lines grow, or management discloses dual-sourcing for at least one currently single-source material within 12 months.
CounterLong-cycle municipal procurement relationships may insulate revenue even in a broader economic slowdown, making the concentration a source of stability rather than a vulnerability in practice.
The stock is below its 200-day moving average with that average's slope declining 6.1% over the past 30 days — a confirmed downtrend that has not yet been resolved despite some improvement in short-term momentum signals.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims and holds above the 200-day moving average for at least 30 consecutive trading days, with the moving average slope flattening or turning positive.
CounterRising on-balance volume indicates institutional accumulation beneath the surface; if buyers sustain this pace, the moving average could flatten and the downtrend could reverse before the stock deteriorates materially.
With 20% of the float sold short and implied volatility at 77%, there is a significant positioning overhang that could amplify price swings in either direction and adds meaningful uncertainty to any near-term position outcome.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% of float within 12 months, either through fundamental improvement that removes the bearish thesis or through a short-covering event.
CounterIf fundamental deterioration continues, the elevated short interest may prove directionally correct rather than a contrarian signal, and the high implied volatility accurately reflects genuine uncertainty about the business trajectory.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue has contracted 9% with three of four recent quarters missing estimates — including a 24% shortfall in the most recent period — while the stock has already crossed above its price target; a confirmed technical downtrend and 89% end-market concentration compound the risk, leaving no clear case for new capital at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.5 |
| ROA | 7.5 |
| Gross margin | 4.3 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.4 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $777,136 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 0.6 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 3.9 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 22% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 110.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 6.8, Sentiment at 5.9, and Insider at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.1, Technical at 0.9, and Catalyst at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Contraction Earnings Misses
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Single Segment Supplier Concentration
Trip ifUtility water product revenue falls below 75% of total revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice closes above the 200-day moving average and stays above for 30 consecutive trading days.
- P4Elevated Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% of float.