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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.15: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.

Brookdale Senior Living is the nation's largest operator of senior living communities, with 584 communities in 41 states serving approximately 51,000 residents across independent living, assisted living, memory care, and CCRCs. Owns 370 communities, leases 178, and manages 36.

$14.15+17.4% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#27 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $13.47Target $16.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$19.10+35.0%5 analysts
$16.62our TP
$14.15price
$19.10mean
$23

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.15: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-352.3
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA18.7
Profit Mgn-8.6%
ROE-308.2%
Rev Growth-4.0%
Beta0.73
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$12-15.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high concentration of communities in various geographic areas, including the states of California, Florida, and Texas.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOW
    Dr. Jordan R. Asher (board member) will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Decision not due to any disagreement with the Company, Board, or management. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.5
Declining revenue: -4%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -8.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.7
Gross Margin
1.5
Operating Margin
1.5
Current Ratio
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -9% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
4.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3MEarnings in 6 days

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.3
Bollinger
2.0
52w Position
6.6
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.07Resistance $14.31

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+17.5%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.15: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 2.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.47. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.62 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.47. Stop-loss: $13.47.

What are the risks of investing in BKD?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is BKD overvalued or undervalued?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -352.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BKD?

9 analysts cover BKD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Brookdale Senior Living Inc. do?Brookdale Senior Living is the nation's largest operator of senior living communities, with 584 communities in 41...

Brookdale Senior Living is the nation's largest operator of senior living communities, with 584 communities in 41 states serving approximately 51,000 residents across independent living, assisted living, memory care, and CCRCs. Owns 370 communities, leases 178, and manages 36.

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