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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.30: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.

Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584 communities in 41 states with ~51,000 resident capacity across independent living, assisted living/memory care, and CCRC segments. 2025 resident fee and management fee... Read more

$13.30+25.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#24 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-0.06%
Stop $12.35Target $16.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$19.10+43.6%5 analysts
$16.62our TP
$13.30price
$19.10mean
$23

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.30: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private pay residents (93.9%)
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)379.4
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn-6.8%
ROE-437.5%
Rev Growth-6.7%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$11-17.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerprivate pay residents94%
    10-K Item 1: 'we generated 93.9% of our consolidated resident fee revenue from private pay residents'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high concentration of communities in various geographic areas, including the states of California, Florida, and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOW
    Dr. Jordan R. Asher notified Brookdale he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with Company, Board, or management. He will serve until his term expires at the 2026 Annual Meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
0.9
Gross Margin
1.6
Operating Margin
3.0
Moat
3.0
Current Ratio
4.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.2
Value Rank
4.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
8.5
Estimates up 8.3% (30d)Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
GatesMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.60Resistance $14.56

Price Targets

$12
$17
A.Upside+25.0%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BKD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.30: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 3.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.35. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BKD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.62 (+25.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.35. Stop-loss: $12.35.

What are the risks of investing in BKD?

Concentration risk — Customer: private pay residents (93.9%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is BKD overvalued or undervalued?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 379.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BKD?

9 analysts cover BKD with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Brookdale Senior Living Inc. do?Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584...

Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584 communities in 41 states with ~51,000 resident capacity across independent living, assisted living/memory care, and CCRC segments. 2025 resident fee and management fee revenue was $3.05B; 93.9% came from private-pay sources.

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