Value
6.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 86.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
BKD · Why this verdict
Why Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookdale is a loss-making senior living operator with improving earnings surprises and wide analyst upside, but declining revenue, weak quality, high short interest and heavy dependence on private-pay residents keep the recovery unproven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Brookdale has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +33.7%, and per-share losses narrowed from -0.20 to -0.02. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly per-share results reach breakeven or better within 12 months, with continued beats. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are measured against small negative estimates, so large percentage surprises reflect a tiny base, and the business is still unprofitable. | ||
Revenue is declining 9% and quality scores only 2.5 with no competitive moat, as quarterly revenue fell from $813.2 million to $718.6 million. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes at or above $720 million per quarter and quality rises above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue declines may reflect portfolio pruning of weaker communities, which can lift margins even as top line shrinks. | ||
Customer concentration is high: private pay residents make up 93.9% of the customer base, with one high and two medium concentration risks flagged. Bear case | Occupancy and pricing hold so private-pay revenue does not decline over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrivate-pay residents provide pricing power and avoid government reimbursement cuts, which can be a strength relative to Medicaid-reliant peers. | ||
Price of $10.39 is 59.8% below the analyst target of $16.60, but short interest is 19% and implied volatility is 78%. Risk breakdown | Price moves toward the $16.60 target as losses narrow, without breaking the $9.77 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 19% short interest suggests informed investors doubt the target. | ||
A death cross is present but MACD is improving and RSI is 53, with rising on-balance volume and momentum at 5.9/10. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum holds at or above 5.5 over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPrice is still below the 200-day average and sits low in its 52-week range, so the rebound can fail around earnings on 2026-11-06. | ||
Brookdale has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +33.7%, and per-share losses narrowed from -0.20 to -0.02.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly per-share results reach breakeven or better within 12 months, with continued beats.
CounterBeats are measured against small negative estimates, so large percentage surprises reflect a tiny base, and the business is still unprofitable.
Revenue is declining 9% and quality scores only 2.5 with no competitive moat, as quarterly revenue fell from $813.2 million to $718.6 million.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes at or above $720 million per quarter and quality rises above 4.0.
CounterRevenue declines may reflect portfolio pruning of weaker communities, which can lift margins even as top line shrinks.
Customer concentration is high: private pay residents make up 93.9% of the customer base, with one high and two medium concentration risks flagged.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Occupancy and pricing hold so private-pay revenue does not decline over the next 12 months.
CounterPrivate-pay residents provide pricing power and avoid government reimbursement cuts, which can be a strength relative to Medicaid-reliant peers.
Price of $10.39 is 59.8% below the analyst target of $16.60, but short interest is 19% and implied volatility is 78%.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $16.60 target as losses narrow, without breaking the $9.77 stop level.
CounterCoverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a 19% short interest suggests informed investors doubt the target.
A death cross is present but MACD is improving and RSI is 53, with rising on-balance volume and momentum at 5.9/10.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum holds at or above 5.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterPrice is still below the 200-day average and sits low in its 52-week range, so the rebound can fail around earnings on 2026-11-06.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 2.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| Moat | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -9%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 9.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 73%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 2.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.6 |
| days to cover | 1.9 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 19%
- ▸High IV: 94%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.48
Upside
+50.2%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 1d<=7d outcome against Sentiment at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of 3.48.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Catalyst at 6.7, and Value at 6.1; the weakest are Technical at 2.1, Quality at 2.5, and Peer rank at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Improving Loss Narrowing
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, starting 2026-11-06.
- P2Declining Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $700 million from the latest $718.6 million.
- P3Private Pay Concentration
Trip ifPrivate pay share of customers falls below 90% from 93.9% or occupancy drops more than 2 points.
- P4Large Analyst Upside High Risk
Trip ifPrice drops to $9.77 or below, the stop level, with short interest above 19%.
- P5Recovering Momentum Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5 from current 5.9.