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Saul Centers, Inc. (BFS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Retail

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 62 properties which includes (a) 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties with... Read more

$33.55+10.2% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 23 REIT - Retail
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.56%
IncomeYield7.03%(5y avg 5.98%)Payout222.64%
Stop $31.97Target $36.98(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$43.50+29.7%2 analysts
$36.98our TP
$33.55price
$43.50mean
$47

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Saul Centers, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.7
P/E (Fwd)24.7
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA15.6
Profit Mgn12.4%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth8.9%
Beta0.90
Dividend7.03%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
5.8
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.64Resistance $35.43

Price Targets

$32
$37
A.Upside+10.2%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BFS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.55 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $31.97. Score 5.9/10, high confidence.

What is the BFS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.98 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $31.97. Stop-loss: $31.97.

What are the risks of investing in BFS?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is BFS overvalued or undervalued?

Saul Centers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.7 (forward 24.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BFS?

6 analysts cover BFS with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Saul Centers, Inc. do?Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which...

Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 62 properties which includes (a) 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties with approximately 10.5 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and development properties. Over 85% of the Saul Centers' property operating income is generated by properties in the metropolitan Washington, DC/Baltimore area. Saul Centers, Inc. was established on June 10, 1993 and incorporated in Maryland, USA.

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