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American Water Works Company, I (AWK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

American Water Works is the largest U.S. publicly-traded water and wastewater utility, serving approximately 14 million people in 24 states with $4.72 billion in Regulated Business operating revenues for 2025 (92% of total revenues). Pennsylvania (24.1%) and New Jersey (23.4%)... Read more

$124.83+6.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#5 of 6 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-7.78%
IncomeYield2.87%(5y avg 1.96%)Payout58.69%sustainable
Stop $118.99Target $133.06(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$137.27+10.0%11 analysts
$133.06our TP
$124.83price
$137.27mean
$155

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — American Water Works Company, I

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.1
P/E (Fwd)19.0
Mkt Cap$24.4B
EV/EBITDA14.1
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.63
Dividend2.87%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
3.9

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.4
Volume
3.7
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $122.67Resistance $135.78

Price Targets

$119
$133
A.Upside+6.6%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.3% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.83 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $118.99. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $133.06 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $118.99. Stop-loss: $118.99.

What are the risks of investing in AWK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is AWK overvalued or undervalued?

American Water Works Company, I trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 19.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AWK?

18 analysts cover AWK with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $137.

What does American Water Works Company, I do?American Water Works is the largest U.S. publicly-traded water and wastewater utility, serving approximately 14 million...

American Water Works is the largest U.S. publicly-traded water and wastewater utility, serving approximately 14 million people in 24 states with $4.72 billion in Regulated Business operating revenues for 2025 (92% of total revenues). Pennsylvania (24.1%) and New Jersey (23.4%) are the two largest state revenue contributors; the top five states account for 79.1% of regulated revenue. A proposed stock-for-stock merger with Essential Utilities was announced in October 2025.

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