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California Water Service Group (CWT) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

California Water Service Group is a holding company with seven water utility subsidiaries serving approximately 562,000 customer connections across California, Hawaii, Washington, New Mexico, and Texas. Revenue comes from regulated water rates set by state commissions; Cal Water... Read more

$42.91+2.4% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#5 of 6 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-10.96%
IncomeYield2.96%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout61.75%
Stop $40.59Target $43.92(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$51.67+20.4%3 analysts
$43.92our TP
$42.91price
$51.67mean
$54

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — California Water Service Group

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California (91.2%)
Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC (91.2%)
Target reached (2.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.5
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA12.3
Profit Mgn11.8%
ROE7.2%
Rev Growth5.2%
Beta0.50
Dividend2.96%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.39bullish
IV32%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia91%
    10-K Item 1: 'California water operations accounted for approximately 89.0% of our total customer connections and 91.2% of our total consolidated operating revenue in 2025'
  • HIGHregulatoryCPUC91%
    10-K Item 1: 'California water operations... subject to regulation by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)... 91.2% of our total consolidated operating revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
3.3
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 296.0%
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $41.57Resistance $47.71

Price Targets

$41
$44
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.5), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CWT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.91: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $40.59. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CWT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.92 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $40.59. Stop-loss: $40.59.

What are the risks of investing in CWT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California (91.2%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC (91.2%); Target reached (2.3% upside).

Is CWT overvalued or undervalued?

California Water Service Group trades at a P/E of 21.5 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CWT?

7 analysts cover CWT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $52.

What does California Water Service Group do?California Water Service Group is a holding company with seven water utility subsidiaries serving approximately 562,000...

California Water Service Group is a holding company with seven water utility subsidiaries serving approximately 562,000 customer connections across California, Hawaii, Washington, New Mexico, and Texas. Revenue comes from regulated water rates set by state commissions; Cal Water (California) accounts for 91.2% of consolidated operating revenue and 89.0% of customer connections. Cal Water's rates are subject to CPUC jurisdiction with a triennial GRC process, creating lag risk between cost increases and rate recovery.

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