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American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. At $75.74, A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC.

American States Water Company operates water utility GSWC (265,142 customers in 11 California counties), electric utility BVES (24,915 customers in San Bernardino County mountain communities), and contracted services ASUS (water/wastewater at 10+ U.S. military installations).... Read more

$75.74+4.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#2 of 6 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.70%
IncomeYield2.67%(5y avg 2.04%)Payout57.65%sustainable
Stop $72.71Target $79.09(resistance)A.R:R -2.9:1
Analyst target$76.00+0.3%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $75.74, A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — American States Water Company

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.0
P/E (Fwd)19.8
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn19.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.67%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV31%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California...our financial results are largely subject to political, water supply, labor, utility cost and regulatory risks...and other risks affecting California businesses.'
  • HIGHregulatoryCPUC
    10-K Item 1A: 'GSWC's and BVES's revenues depend substantially on the rates and charges we are permitted to recover from our customers and the timing of that recovery as authorized by the CPUC.'
  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government (ASUS contracted services)
    10-K Item 1: 'the U.S. government is the primary customer for ASUS's contracted services.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved 2026 base salaries for CEO Sprowls, CFO Tang, and other executive officers. Compensatory arrangement only; no officer departures or appointments.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    Board approved time-vested RSU awards and performance awards to CEO Sprowls, CFO Tang, and other named executive officers. Compensatory arrangement only.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program (cash bonus) for executive officers. Compensatory arrangement only.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -2.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $73.40Resistance $80.70

Price Targets

$73
$79
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R-2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $75.74, A.R:R is negative (-2.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $72.71. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $79.09 (+4.5% upside). Prior stop was $72.71. Stop-loss: $72.71.

What are the risks of investing in AWR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: CPUC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is AWR overvalued or undervalued?

American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 22.0 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AWR?

9 analysts cover AWR with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $76.

What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates water utility GSWC (265,142 customers in 11 California counties), electric...

American States Water Company operates water utility GSWC (265,142 customers in 11 California counties), electric utility BVES (24,915 customers in San Bernardino County mountain communities), and contracted services ASUS (water/wastewater at 10+ U.S. military installations). All utility operations are in California and regulated by the CPUC; ASUS operates under firm-fixed-price contracts with the U.S. government as its primary customer.

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