American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.33 — A.R:R is negative (-3.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California.
American States Water Company operates regulated water (GSWC) and electric (BVES) utilities exclusively in California plus contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military installations nationwide (ASUS). GSWC served 265,142 water customers and BVES served 24,915 electric... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.33 — A.R:R is negative (-3.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California. As a result, our financial results are largely subject to political, water supply, labor, utility cost and regulatory risks, economic conditions, natural disasters...and other risks affecting California businesses.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOWCompensation Committee approved 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for executive officers on March 26, 2026. Routine annual compensatory arrangement.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOWBoard approved time-vested restricted stock units and performance awards to executive officers on March 12, 2026. Routine annual equity compensation grant.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOWIndependent Board members approved 2026 base salaries for executive officers on February 10, 2026. Routine annual compensation adjustment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.33 — A.R:R is negative (-3.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $74.27. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $79.62 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $74.27. Stop-loss: $74.27.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 20.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover AWR with a consensus score of 2.2/5. Average price target: $76.
What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates regulated water (GSWC) and electric (BVES) utilities exclusively in California...
American States Water Company operates regulated water (GSWC) and electric (BVES) utilities exclusively in California plus contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military installations nationwide (ASUS). GSWC served 265,142 water customers and BVES served 24,915 electric customers in California at December 31, 2025; residential and commercial customers account for approximately 90% of water and electric revenues.