American States Water is a California regulated water utility with strong 21% margins and a bullish breakout setup, but the price of $86.32 is 17.3% above the $71.40 analyst target and earnings arrive in 3 days. Concentration in California and its regulator, plus negative cash conversion, limit the case.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Margins Regulated Utility→Stable
- Price Well Above Analyst Target→Stable
- California Regulatory Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Sell if holding. At $88.61, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All... Read more
Sell if holding. At $88.61, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — American States Water Company
Latest news
- NEWS American States Water declares $0.5455 dividend - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS American States Water Company Announces Regular Common Dividends - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS American States Water Company Announces Regular Common Dividends, Payable on December 2, 2026 - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS AWR Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 195.98M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (AWR) American States Water Company Reports Q2 Revenue $181.3M, vs. FactSet Est of $171.7M - marketscreen — marketscreener.com Aug 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California.'
- HIGHregulatoryCalifornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)10-K Item 1: 'GSWC is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission ... also regulated by the CPUC.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government10-K Item 1: 'the U.S. government is the primary customer for ASUS's contracted services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan on May 19, 2026, replacing the 2016 plan. Permits grants of stock options, restricted stock, RSUs, and performance awards to executive officers and directors. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOWOn March 26, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for executive officers including CEO Robert J. Sprowls and CFO Eva G. Tang. Cash bonus with objective and discretionary components. Compensatory arrangement only.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOWOn March 12, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved time-vested RSU and performance award RSU grants to CEO Robert J. Sprowls, CFO Eva G. Tang, and other senior officers. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $88.61, A.R:R is negative (-2.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $85.03. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $71.40 reached (−19.4% from $88.61); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $85.03. Stop-loss: $85.03.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 24.3 (forward 23.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts rate AWR, with a consensus score of 2.5/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $84.
What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in...
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All regulated utility revenue comes from California under CPUC oversight; ASUS operates under 50-year firm-fixed-price U.S. government contracts.