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WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.Sell4.7·$39.53
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Essential Utilities is a regulated water utility with 3 of 4 recent quarters beating expectations and rising earnings estimates, but its free cash flow is deeply negative at -117% of net income, the put/call ratio has spiked to 6.33, and the stock trades above its analyst target — creating an unfavorable entry profile despite regulatory revenue stability.

Thesis pillars

  • Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
  • Elevated Options Put Call Ratio↓Deteriorating
  • Earnings Beat With Rising Estimates→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a Pennsylvania corporation, is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water, wastewater, or natural gas services to an estimated 5.5 million people... Read more

$39.53-7.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#9 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.83%
IncomeYield3.59%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout70.28%
Stop $38.07Target $41.66(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$42.20+6.8%5 analysts
$41.66our TP
$39.53price
$42.20mean
$38
$49

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.6
P/E (Fwd)16.7
Mkt Cap$11.3B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend3.59%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
3.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 25)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
5.0
Value Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.24Resistance $42.51

Price Targets

$38
$42
A.Upside-7.1%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.1% upside)
! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTRG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $38.07. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTRG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.66 (-7.1% upside). Prior stop was $38.07. Stop-loss: $38.07.

What are the risks of investing in WTRG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is WTRG overvalued or undervalued?

Essential Utilities, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 16.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WTRG?

13 analysts cover WTRG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Essential Utilities, Inc. do?Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a...

Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a Pennsylvania corporation, is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water, wastewater, or natural gas services to an estimated 5.5 million people in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, Virginia, and Kentucky under the Aqua and Peoples brands.

Related stocks: CWT (California Water Service Group) · SBS (Companhia de saneamento Basico ) · AWR (American States Water Company) · AWK (American Water Works Company, I) · HTO (H2O America)
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