Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.58
- ▸Attractively valued
ASO · Why this verdict
Why Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary. | ||
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts. | ||
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery. | ||
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend. | →Stable |
| CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align. | ||
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves.
CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary.
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery.
CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts.
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price.
CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery.
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend.
CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock trades at a significant discount with a forward P/E of 7.0x and a PEG of 0.61, but weak technical momentum, a 16% short interest, and a mixed earnings record with no clear delivery trend make the value case difficult to act on without a confirming catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.8 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 23% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $240,000 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 1.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 20%
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 125.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
1.77
Upside
+15.8%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.77 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Technical at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.3, Catalyst at 4.4, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Cheap Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x, indicating the value discount has been substantially closed.
- P2Broken Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 30 consecutive days.
- P3Elevated Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.
- P4Mixed Earnings No Clear Trend
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.