Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
- ▸Attractively valued
ASO · Why this verdict
Why Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock trades at a significant discount with a forward P/E of 7.0x and a PEG of 0.61, but weak technical momentum, a 16% short interest, and a mixed earnings record with no clear delivery trend make the value case difficult to act on without a confirming catalyst.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary. | ||
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts. | ||
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery. | ||
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align. | ||
A forward P/E of 7.0x, a PEG of 0.61, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place the stock among the more attractively valued names in its peer group, offering a material discount to intrinsic indicators.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E re-rates above 10x over the next year as the market recognizes the valuation discount and earnings delivery improves.
CounterCheap valuations persist when business quality is structurally impaired; with no identifiable competitive moat and only 23% of net income converting to free cash flow, the discount may be warranted rather than temporary.
Momentum has deteriorated materially — the stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a flat slope, on-balance volume is declining (distribution, not accumulation), and the momentum score fails the minimum gate at 2.4 versus a threshold of 4.5.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns positive (rising) and price crosses back above the 200-day moving average, confirming a momentum recovery.
CounterWeak momentum in a deeply cheap stock can reverse sharply if a catalyst arrives; the combination of low multiple and depressed technical positioning creates asymmetric upside if sentiment shifts.
Short interest stands at 16% of float and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.14, indicating a material portion of the market is positioned for further downside — a headwind that may suppress any recovery until shorts cover.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 8% as bears cover, removing a structural overhang on the stock price.
CounterHigh short interest creates fuel for a short squeeze if the company delivers a positive earnings surprise; the 16% level could amplify upside moves rather than only suppressing recovery.
The last four quarters show an alternating beat-miss-beat-miss pattern, with positive surprises of +2.6% and +7.5% offset by misses of -4.0% and -9.1%, averaging slightly negative overall — suggesting no established delivery discipline.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, establishing a genuine positive delivery trend.
CounterThe alternating pattern may reflect seasonal demand variability rather than structural guidance failure; the two beats show the business is capable of exceeding consensus when conditions align.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 3.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.8 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 23% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.8 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 5.2 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸Above max pain $39
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
1.52
Upside
+13.0%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, Quality at 4.4, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Cheap Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x, indicating the value discount has been substantially closed.
- P2Broken Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns positive for 30 consecutive days.
- P3Elevated Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float.
- P4Mixed Earnings No Clear Trend
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.