Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.62
- ▸Attractively valued
ASO · Why this verdict
Why Academy Sports and Outdoors, In (ASO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Academy Sports is cheaply valued (forward P/E 8.4x) with a 3-of-4 earnings beat record, but the price is already 7.4% above the $54.80 analyst target, insiders sold $5.6M in 90 days, short interest is 23% and cash conversion is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 43% of net income, no competitive moat and a quality score of 5.2/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should rise above 70% of net income to support the earnings base. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9 and the company is a dividend aristocrat, so low cash conversion may reflect inventory timing rather than weak earnings. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.4x with a PEG of 0.60 and a margin of safety of 44%, giving a value score of 8.1/10. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 11x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA specialty retailer exposed to discretionary spending (sector modifier -1.5) can see earnings estimates fall quickly, which would make the 8.4x multiple look higher. | ||
Academy beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +11.1% in September 2026 (2.31 vs 2.08), with an average surprise of 4.3%. Earnings | EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2026-12-08. | →Stable |
| CounterThe record over the longer 12-quarter window is poor, with 8 misses, so the recent beat streak may be a short-lived improvement. | ||
The price of $59.20 is already 7.4% above the $54.80 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.5 against 15.0% downside to the stop. Estimated upside | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price before upside returns. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average with strong valuation scores, so analysts may raise targets after the next beat. | ||
Insiders sold $5,576,899 of stock (0.153% of market cap) in 6 sell transactions over 90 days with no buys, while short interest is high at 23%. Insider | Insider selling should fall below $1M per 90 days for the signal to turn neutral. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling is only 0.153% of market cap and may be scheduled, and 23% short interest could fuel a squeeze if earnings beat again. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 43% of net income, no competitive moat and a quality score of 5.2/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should rise above 70% of net income to support the earnings base.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9 and the company is a dividend aristocrat, so low cash conversion may reflect inventory timing rather than weak earnings.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.4x with a PEG of 0.60 and a margin of safety of 44%, giving a value score of 8.1/10.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 11x as earnings hold up over the next 12 months.
CounterA specialty retailer exposed to discretionary spending (sector modifier -1.5) can see earnings estimates fall quickly, which would make the 8.4x multiple look higher.
Academy beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including +11.1% in September 2026 (2.31 vs 2.08), with an average surprise of 4.3%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should keep meeting or beating estimates at the next report on 2026-12-08.
CounterThe record over the longer 12-quarter window is poor, with 8 misses, so the recent beat streak may be a short-lived improvement.
The price of $59.20 is already 7.4% above the $54.80 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.5 against 15.0% downside to the stop.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price before upside returns.
CounterThe stock is above its 200-day average with strong valuation scores, so analysts may raise targets after the next beat.
Insiders sold $5,576,899 of stock (0.153% of market cap) in 6 sell transactions over 90 days with no buys, while short interest is high at 23%.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should fall below $1M per 90 days for the signal to turn neutral.
CounterSelling is only 0.153% of market cap and may be scheduled, and 23% short interest could fuel a squeeze if earnings beat again.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 3.2 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,576,899 (0.134% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 3.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 23%
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $38
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
-1.26
Upside
-18.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Momentum at 6.7, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Technical at 3.9, and Growth at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from current 8.4x.
- P2Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $66 from current $54.80.
- P4Insider Selling High Short Interest
Trip ifNet insider selling over 90 days falls below $1M from current $5.6M.
- P5Weak Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income rises above 70% from current 43%.