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Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $119.89, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC.

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5 billion AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating from 55+ offices in 25+ countries. Fee revenue comes from over 2,850 direct institutional relationships plus a... Read more

$119.89+8.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#53 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.40%
IncomeYield4.46%(5y avg 2.71%)Payout217.05%at-risk
Stop $111.88Target $130.92(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$145.47+21.3%17 analysts
$130.92our TP
$119.89price
$145.47mean
$190

Sell if holding. At $119.89, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Ares Management Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC
Thin upside margin: 8.8%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)55.8
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$39.9B
EV/EBITDA33.2
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE14.2%
Rev Growth28.3%
Beta1.52
Dividend4.46%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$55-54.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerARCC
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive a significant portion of our management fees from ARCC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 446.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.8
Quality Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
8.5
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $108.78Resistance $129.35

Price Targets

$112
$131
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARES stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $119.89, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.8%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $111.88. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.92 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $111.88. Stop-loss: $111.88.

What are the risks of investing in ARES?

Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Thin upside margin: 8.8%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is ARES overvalued or undervalued?

Ares Management Corporation trades at a P/E of 55.8 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARES?

23 analysts cover ARES with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Ares Management Corporation do?Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5 billion AUM across Credit, Real Assets,...

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5 billion AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating from 55+ offices in 25+ countries. Fee revenue comes from over 2,850 direct institutional relationships plus a significant retail investor base through publicly traded funds and sub-advised accounts.

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