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Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $105.34. At $112.50 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $105.34 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating in 55+ offices in 25+ countries with 4,250+ employees. It earns management fees, performance fees, and carried interest... Read more

$112.50+15.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#103 of 109 Asset Management
Entry $105.34(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $94.73Target $127.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$141.71+26.0%17 analysts
$127.54our TP
$112.50price
$141.71mean
$190

Wait for pullback to $105.34. At $112.50 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $105.34 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)64.8
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$36.6B
EV/EBITDA35.1
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth19.5%
Beta1.54
Dividend4.87%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.98neutral
IV72%elevated
Max Pain$70-37.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerARCC
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive a significant portion of our management fees from ARCC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
1.9
Rsi
3.6
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.7
Quality Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
7.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.4

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.7
Support Resistance
4.7
Bollinger
4.9
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.44Resistance $123.46

Price Targets

$95
$105
$128
A.Upside+13.4%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARES stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $105.34. At $112.50 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $105.34 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $127.54 (+13.4%), stop $94.73 (−18.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ARES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.54 (+15.8% upside). Target $127.54 (+13.4%), stop $94.73 (−18.8%), Setup A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $94.73.

What are the risks of investing in ARES?

Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is ARES overvalued or undervalued?

Ares Management Corporation trades at a P/E of 64.8 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ARES?

23 analysts cover ARES with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $142.

What does Ares Management Corporation do?Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries,...

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating in 55+ offices in 25+ countries with 4,250+ employees. It earns management fees, performance fees, and carried interest from funds serving 2,850+ direct institutional relationships. AUM grew at a 21% CAGR over the past decade.

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