Value
4.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.99
ARES · Why this verdict
Why Ares Management (ARES) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ares Management has strong momentum and institutional accumulation, but price sits within 2.2% of the analyst target against 13.9% downside, revenue is declining 19%, and quality is weak, so it is not a compelling add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is down 19% and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 2/9 with no competitive moat, pushing quality to 4.5. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and Piotroski score rises above 5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAlternative asset managers have lumpy revenue from performance fees, so a one-year drop may not reflect the fee-related earnings base. | ||
Momentum scores 7.8 with rising OBV volume accumulation and price above the 200-day average in a breakout setup. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 6.0. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 200-day slope is flat, so the breakout may lack trend support and reverse. | ||
Institutions are accumulating shares while insider activity is neutral with zero net buying or selling. Insider breakdown | Institutional holdings continue to rise over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsiders are not buying, so there is no confirming signal from management. | ||
Only 2.2% upside remains to the analyst target versus 13.9% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.16. Warnings | Price pulls back or targets rise so reward-to-risk improves above 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag a rising price, so upside revisions may follow the breakout. | ||
Debt-to-equity of 1.7 triggers a leverage penalty and short interest is 15%, signaling skepticism from short sellers. Key risks | Short interest falls below 10% and leverage does not rise above 1.7. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest alongside rising momentum can fuel short covering that supports the price. | ||
Revenue is down 19% and the Piotroski F-Score is a weak 2/9 with no competitive moat, pushing quality to 4.5.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and Piotroski score rises above 5.
CounterAlternative asset managers have lumpy revenue from performance fees, so a one-year drop may not reflect the fee-related earnings base.
Momentum scores 7.8 with rising OBV volume accumulation and price above the 200-day average in a breakout setup.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays above 6.0.
CounterThe 200-day slope is flat, so the breakout may lack trend support and reverse.
Institutions are accumulating shares while insider activity is neutral with zero net buying or selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional holdings continue to rise over the next 12 months.
CounterInsiders are not buying, so there is no confirming signal from management.
Only 2.2% upside remains to the analyst target versus 13.9% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.16.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back or targets rise so reward-to-risk improves above 1.5.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag a rising price, so upside revisions may follow the breakout.
Debt-to-equity of 1.7 triggers a leverage penalty and short interest is 15%, signaling skepticism from short sellers.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% and leverage does not rise above 1.7.
CounterHigh short interest alongside rising momentum can fuel short covering that supports the price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -19%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 80 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.38 (n=2)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
1.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.28
- ▸Above max pain $90
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.24
Upside
-3.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.51>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Momentum at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 1.4, and Technical at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Breakout Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.8.
- P2Institutional Accumulation
Trip ifInstitutional ownership falls by more than 3 percentage points over 2 quarters.
- P3Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice rises above the analyst target (upside falls below 0%) without target revisions.
- P4Declining Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifRevenue declines more than 25% year over year.
- P5Leverage And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 20% of float from current 15%.