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Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor (OTF) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Wait for pullback to $10.86. At $10.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.86 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum.

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and equity investments in enterprise software and technology companies. As of December 31, 2025, OTF had $14.3B in investments across 199 portfolio companies, 76.8%... Read more

$10.88+9.7% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#3 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.88%
IncomeYield12.76%Payout145.83%at-risk
Entry $10.86(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $10.18Target $11.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1Setup A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$13.67+25.6%9 analysts
$11.89our TP
$10.88price
$13.67mean
$16

Wait for pullback to $10.86. At $10.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.86 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val8.4Qual7.2Grw9.8Mom1.9Sent6.2Ins5.1Peer5.1Tech5.2Risk6.36.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.0%
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.4
P/E (Fwd)8.2
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn32.8%
ROE5.4%
Rev Growth78.3%
Beta—
Dividend12.76%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.67Resistance $11.85

Price Targets

$10
$11
$12
A.Upside+9.3%
A.R:R1.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: SMALL-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTF stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $10.86. At $10.88 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $10.86 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Target $11.89 (+9.3%), stop $10.18 (−6.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the OTF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.89 (+9.7% upside). Target $11.89 (+9.3%), stop $10.18 (−6.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $10.18.

What are the risks of investing in OTF?

Thin upside margin: 9.0%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OTF overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor trades at a P/E of 11.4 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OTF?

14 analysts cover OTF with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor do?Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and...

Blue Owl Technology Finance Corp. is an externally managed BDC focused on senior secured and subordinated loans and equity investments in enterprise software and technology companies. As of December 31, 2025, OTF had $14.3B in investments across 199 portfolio companies, 76.8% first lien senior secured, with 96.2% floating-rate debt; listed on NYSE as OTF in June 2025.

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