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AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor LSell4.8·$27.93
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AOSL shows a strong recent earnings beat rate, but extreme balance-sheet leverage, quality metrics well below the required floor, negative price momentum, and notable insider selling point to significant near-term risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Required Floor→Stable
  • Extreme Leverage Value Trap↓Deteriorating
  • Negative Price Momentum↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L (AOSL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality.

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor designs power semiconductors — MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC devices, and power ICs across roughly 2,800 products — serving computing (its largest end market), consumer, and industrial customers. It fabricates wafers at its own Oregon Fab and third-party... Read more

$27.93+33.1% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#51 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-3.59%
Stop $25.97Target $37.19(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$43.75+56.6%4 analysts
$37.19our TP
$27.93price
$43.75mean
$58

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L

About Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor operates a hybrid manufacturing model, running its own 8-inch wafer fabrication facility in Hillsboro, Oregon, alongside third-party foundries and a 39.2%-owned joint venture that operates a 12-inch wafer fab and assembly/test facility in Chongqing, China. The company's roughly 2,800-product power-semiconductor portfolio serves computing, its largest end market, alongside consumer, communications, and industrial applications, with assembly and test primarily performed at its in-house China facilities.

AOSL earns revenue selling power discretes (MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC devices) and power ICs to OEMs and ODMs across personal computers, graphics cards, game consoles, smartphones, and industrial motor-control applications, with direct relationships targeted at Tier 1 customers it views as critical to long-term growth. Its Chongqing joint venture, in which AOSL holds a 39.2% equity interest after selling down its stake in two transactions during fiscal 2025, is described in the filing as an important supplier of wafers and assembly and test services, and is contractually committed to provide the company a monthly wafer production capacity guarantee. In July 2025, AOSL agreed to sell an additional 20.3% equity interest in the JV Company for $150 million, a transaction that triggered a $76.8 million other-than-temporary impairment of the equity method investment as of June 30, 2025. Average selling prices in the power-semiconductor market have historically declined over each product's life, pressuring gross margins unless offset by new, higher-margin product introductions.

Show full overview

AOSL's structural risk concentrates in its manufacturing geography rather than a single customer: assembly and test work is performed primarily at the company's own in-house facilities in China, and its Chongqing joint venture — now a minority-owned affiliate rather than a consolidated subsidiary — remains an important source of wafer and assembly capacity under a monthly production guarantee. The 10-K devotes an entire risk-factor section to doing business in China, citing exposure to PRC foreign-investment law, currency and capital-repatriation controls, and Taiwan-China relations, meaning AOSL's supply chain sits closer to Chinese regulatory and political risk than peers relying solely on Taiwanese or U.S. foundries.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)86.7
Mkt Cap$826M
EV/EBITDA47.8
Profit Mgn-6.2%
ROE-5.2%
Rev Growth-3.5%
Beta2.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierJV Company (Chongqing Fab)
    10-K Item 1: 'the JV Company is an important supplier of wafers and assembly and test services to us'
  • MEDIUMGeographicin-house facilities in China
    10-K Item 1: 'For assembly and test, we primarily rely upon our in-house facilities in China.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Director Dr. Lucas S. Chang notified the company on April 13, 2026 of his decision to retire from the Board of Directors, effective April 17, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.3
Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
5.0

Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.5
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
9.6
Cash-burning: FCF -4% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
65 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.35Resistance $28.32

Price Targets

$26
$37
A.Upside+33.1%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AOSL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.93: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $25.97. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AOSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.19 (+33.1% upside). Prior stop was $25.97. Stop-loss: $25.97.

What are the risks of investing in AOSL?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.4%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.16% of cap).

Is AOSL overvalued or undervalued?

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 86.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AOSL?

10 analysts cover AOSL with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Alpha and Omega Semiconductor L do?Alpha and Omega Semiconductor designs power semiconductors — MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC devices, and power ICs across roughly...

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor designs power semiconductors — MOSFETs, IGBTs, SiC devices, and power ICs across roughly 2,800 products — serving computing (its largest end market), consumer, and industrial customers. It fabricates wafers at its own Oregon Fab and third-party foundries, assembles and tests primarily at in-house China facilities, and relies on its 39.2%-owned Chongqing joint venture as a key wafer supplier.

Related stocks: CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) · NVEC (NVE Corporation) · ALGM (Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.) · MRAM (Everspin Technologies, Inc.) · DIOD (Diodes Incorporated)
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