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MXLMaxLinear, IncSell5.2·$91.89-1.32%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MaxLinear is recovering strongly with 43% revenue growth and 3 consecutive earnings beats, but trades 33% above its price target with quality below the minimum threshold and a very high forward P/E of 47x that limits the risk-adjusted case for new entry.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Recovery Strong GrowthStable
  • Quality Floor BreachStable
  • Piotroski Strength Balance SheetStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MaxLinear, Inc (MXL) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline infrastructure, data centers, and industrial and multi-market applications, integrating RF, analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single chips.... Read more

$91.89+31.4% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#29 of 54 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.27%
Stop $88.98Target $125.73(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$68.36-25.6%11 analysts
$125.73our TP
$91.89price
$68.36mean
$40
$126

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 18d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and SEC filing concern. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About MaxLinear, Inc

About MaxLinear, Inc

MaxLinear designs communications systems-on-chip as a fabless integrated circuit company, combining RF, high-performance analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single dies for customers building 5G base-station radios, optical transceivers for hyperscale data centers, and Wi-Fi and DOCSIS broadband gateways. The company's target end-markets span data-center infrastructure serving customers such as Meta, Amazon, Microsoft and Google, 5G wireless infrastructure using massive MIMO beamforming, and connected-home broadband access equipment. In May 2026, MaxLinear dismissed Grant Thornton as its independent registered public accounting firm without disclosing any disagreement over accounting practices, and stockholders approved a ten-year renewal of its equity incentive plan with 3,204,107 additional shares reserved at the 2026 annual meeting.

MaxLinear sells primarily through electronics distributors, module makers and OEM/ODM customers rather than directly to end consumers, earning revenue from hardware component sales priced on a per-chip basis across its broadband, infrastructure, data-center and industrial product lines. Its competitive position rests on combining RF/analog design expertise with high-speed digital signal processing on a single chip, which the company argues lowers system cost, power consumption and board space relative to rivals using multiple discrete components. As a fabless designer, MaxLinear depends on third-party wafer foundries and packaging/test subcontractors for manufacturing capacity, exposing it to allocation risk during periods of high industry demand for advanced process nodes. The company previously pursued a merger with Silicon Motion Technology that was subsequently terminated, and its 10-K discusses residual risk factors tied to that terminated transaction alongside its ongoing operating business.

Show full overview

MaxLinear's data-center strategy is built around supplying optical-transceiver components to a short list of named hyperscale operators, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Alibaba, Bytedance and Tencent among them, whose internal switch and server upgrade cycles from 400G toward 800G and 1.6T interconnects directly drive demand for MaxLinear's newest parts. Because these hyperscalers concentrate purchasing decisions internally and can qualify multiple competing suppliers simultaneously, a design loss at even one or two of these named customers could materially affect MaxLinear's data-center revenue trajectory, though the 10-K does not disclose what share of segment revenue any single hyperscaler represents.

See also: Technology · Semiconductors

From MaxLinear, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — MaxLinear, Inc

Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202618d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-37.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)49.7
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA-227.2
Profit Mgn-26.0%
ROE-27.9%
Rev Growth43.0%
Beta3.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV143%elevated
Max Pain$40-56.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 4.01HIGH
    On May 28, 2026 MaxLinear dismissed Grant Thornton LLP as its independent registered public accounting firm, approved by the Audit Committee. Grant Thornton's prior reports contained no adverse opinion or disclaimer; no disagreements or reportable events were cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOW
    At MaxLinear's 2026 annual meeting, stockholders approved a restated Equity Incentive Plan with a new ten-year term and 3,204,107 additional reserved shares, plus an amended Employee Stock Purchase Plan removing its annual automatic share increase. Routine equity-plan renewal.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
7.4

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.3
Analyst Target
3.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 49.7xPEG: 0.22

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
3.9
Current Ratio
6.1
Moat
6.5
Gross Margin
7.4
Piotroski F
8.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 0.3%)Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVESEC critical: INSIDER 0.00%=MODERATEMomentum 6.5>=5.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 18d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.77Resistance $128.30

Price Targets

$89
$126
A.Upside+36.8%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-37.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (18d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MXL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $88.98. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MXL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $125.73 (+31.4% upside). Prior stop was $88.98. Stop-loss: $88.98.

What are the risks of investing in MXL?

Target reached (-37.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is MXL overvalued or undervalued?

MaxLinear, Inc trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 49.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MXL?

15 analysts cover MXL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $68.

What does MaxLinear, Inc do?MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline...

MaxLinear is a fabless designer of communications systems-on-chip used in broadband, mobile and wireline infrastructure, data centers, and industrial and multi-market applications, integrating RF, analog, mixed-signal and digital-signal-processing functions onto single chips. Customers include electronics distributors, module makers, OEMs and ODMs building products such as 5G base-station radios, optical transceivers for data centers, and Wi-Fi and DOCSIS broadband gateways. The company terminated its proposed merger with Silicon Motion and, in May 2026, dismissed its longtime auditor Grant Th

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