The Andersons is a cheaply valued food distributor (forward P/E 10.1x) with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but weak business quality, negative free cash flow conversion and soft momentum limit conviction.
Thesis pillars
- Stagnant Revenue And Momentum→Stable
- Weak Earnings Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
- Corn Commodity Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.35: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
The Andersons operates two segments from approximately 180 locations: Agribusiness (grain merchandising, nutrient manufacturing, and elevator operations principally in North America) and Renewables (four ethanol plants in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio with combined nameplate... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.35: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About The Andersons, Inc.
About The Andersons, Inc.
The Andersons runs two segments from approximately 180 locations across the United States, Canada, and six other countries: Agribusiness, which merchandises grain (principally corn, wheat, and soybeans), manufactures nutrients, and operates grain elevators; and Renewables, which operates four ethanol plants in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio with combined nameplate capacity of 405 million gallons. The company employs 2,137 people and completed full consolidation of its ethanol operations on July 31, 2025 by acquiring the remaining 49.9% of The Andersons Marathon Holdings.
The Andersons generates margins by buying, conditioning, and selling physical agricultural commodities — earnings accrue through basis appreciation between cash and futures prices, spread between futures contract months, and storage fees at grain elevators. The Renewables segment converts corn into ethanol and co-products; since ethanol prices track petroleum-based gasoline, segment margins depend on the corn-to-energy price spread. The Agribusiness segment also manufactures and distributes potash, phosphate, and nitrogen-based nutrients, inputs subject to volatile global supply and demand. The company manages commodity price risk through exchange-traded futures and options contracts, though basis movements on large inventory positions can significantly affect profitability. For fertilizer procurement, the 10-K notes that large volumes are sourced from a small number of suppliers and purchasing power is important to delivering competitive pricing.
Show full overview
A significant portion of The Andersons' assets sits in the Eastern Grain Belt, where adverse weather during fertilizer application, planting, and harvest seasons could compress Agribusiness and Renewables margins simultaneously. The Renewables segment faces an additional regulatory inflection: Section 45Z tax credits apply to qualifying fuel produced after December 31, 2024 through December 31, 2029, but the transfer market is described in the 10-K as still developing with credits typically trading at discounts to face value. Corn — identified as the principal raw material for ethanol — exposes the Renewables segment to price volatility that could make ethanol uneconomical to produce if corn prices rise without a corresponding increase in petroleum-based fuel prices.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
From The Andersons, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — The Andersons, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS The Andersons, Inc. to Acquire Harvestone Low Carbon Partners for $915 Million — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The Andersons Agrees To Acquire Harvestone Low Carbon Partners From Energy Capital Partners For $915M; Transaction Expec — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS The Andersons, Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Andersons Q3 Adj. EPS $1.38 Beats $1.13 Estimate, Sales $2.834B Miss $2.969B Estimate — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BMO Capital Maintains Outperform on Andersons, Raises Price Target to $90 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditycorn10-K Item 1A: 'The principal raw material used to produce ethanol and co-products is corn.'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of suppliers for raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers for certain of our raw materials and other products and the loss of one or several of these suppliers could increase our costs'
- MEDIUMGeographicEastern Grain Belt10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of the Company's assets are still exposed to conditions in the Eastern Grain Belt'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -1.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $55.35: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 3.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 20, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $52.41. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $73.67 (+33.1% upside). Prior stop was $52.41. Stop-loss: $52.41.
Concentration risk — Commodity: corn; Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).
The Andersons, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate ANDE, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $87.
What does The Andersons, Inc. do?The Andersons operates two segments from approximately 180 locations: Agribusiness (grain merchandising, nutrient...
The Andersons operates two segments from approximately 180 locations: Agribusiness (grain merchandising, nutrient manufacturing, and elevator operations principally in North America) and Renewables (four ethanol plants in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio with combined nameplate capacity of 405 million gallons, fully consolidated as of July 2025). The company employs 2,137 people and earns margins through commodity price spreads, elevation fees, and ethanol production.