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United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.77: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality.

UNFI is a leading North American grocery and non-food distributor to 30,000+ customer locations via its Natural, Conventional, and Retail (75 Cub Foods/Shoppers stores) segments. The company operates 52 distribution centers with ~30M sq ft of warehouse space and offers ~230,000... Read more

$50.77+2.7% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#5 of 5 Food Distribution
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield17.52%
Stop $47.43Target $52.12(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$46.25-8.9%8 analysts
$52.12our TP
$50.77price
$46.25mean
$38
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.77: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — United Natural Foods, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-20.7% upside)
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-4.8%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.71bearish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$40-21.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customer25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer accounted for approximately 25% of our Net sales in fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Roa
1.4
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
8.0
GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $46.50Resistance $53.18

Price Targets

$47
$52
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-20.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNFI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $50.77: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.71; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $47.43. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $52.12 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $47.43. Stop-loss: $47.43.

What are the risks of investing in UNFI?

Target reached (-20.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap).

Is UNFI overvalued or undervalued?

United Natural Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNFI?

17 analysts cover UNFI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $46.

What does United Natural Foods, Inc. do?UNFI is a leading North American grocery and non-food distributor to 30,000+ customer locations via its Natural,...

UNFI is a leading North American grocery and non-food distributor to 30,000+ customer locations via its Natural, Conventional, and Retail (75 Cub Foods/Shoppers stores) segments. The company operates 52 distribution centers with ~30M sq ft of warehouse space and offers ~230,000 products. Its largest customer represents ~25% of net sales, served under a distribution agreement expiring May 2032.

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