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United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.62: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

UNFI is a wholesale grocery distributor supplying 30,000+ customer locations across the U.S. and Canada with approximately 230,000 products through 52 distribution centers. Revenue from Natural and Conventional distribution segments; largest customer accounts for 25% of net... Read more

$49.62-1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#5 of 5 Food Distribution
Stop $46.80Target $48.89(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$46.25-6.8%8 analysts
$48.89our TP
$49.62price
$46.25mean
$38
$56

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.62: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-18.9% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.6%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA11.1
Profit Mgn-0.2%
ROE-4.8%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.83
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$24-51.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customer25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer accounted for approximately 25% of our Net sales in fiscal 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.4
Roa
1.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.7
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 70)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.8
52w Position
9.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
8.0
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.08Resistance $49.89

Price Targets

$47
$49
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.6%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UNFI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $49.62: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.80. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UNFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.89 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $46.80. Stop-loss: $46.80.

What are the risks of investing in UNFI?

Target reached (-18.9% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 3.6%), Material insider selling (3 sells, 0.04% of cap).

Is UNFI overvalued or undervalued?

United Natural Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about UNFI?

17 analysts cover UNFI with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $46.

What does United Natural Foods, Inc. do?UNFI is a wholesale grocery distributor supplying 30,000+ customer locations across the U.S. and Canada with...

UNFI is a wholesale grocery distributor supplying 30,000+ customer locations across the U.S. and Canada with approximately 230,000 products through 52 distribution centers. Revenue from Natural and Conventional distribution segments; largest customer accounts for 25% of net sales.

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