Value
8.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ANDE · Why this verdict
Why The Andersons (ANDE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The Andersons is a cheaply valued food distributor (forward P/E 10.1x) with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, but weak business quality, negative free cash flow conversion and soft momentum limit conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining 1% and momentum score is 2.6 of 10, with falling on-balance volume pointing to distribution of shares. Momentum breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive and momentum recovers above 4.5 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising, so the weakness may be a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed decline. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -62% of net income and quality score of 2.8 below the 4.0 floor, and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion should turn positive and quality score should rise toward 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWorking-capital swings in commodity distribution routinely distort cash flow, so negative conversion may be timing rather than structural weakness. | ||
The business carries a high-severity commodity concentration in corn and an unsafe high dividend yield flagged as a yield trap. Bear case | Corn exposure risk stays contained and dividend safety score improves above 4.3. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA weak corn price cycle or margin squeeze could pressure earnings and force the dividend into question. | ||
The Andersons trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x and an attractive P/E versus peers, with analyst upside of 35%. Valuation breakdown | Valuation stays near 10x forward earnings while the price moves toward the $73.67 analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples can reflect a low-quality, thin-margin commodity business, so cheapness may be a value trap rather than an opportunity. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 54.65%. Earnings | Continued EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-03 and in following quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats come against low, volatile estimates, and the company missed as recently as August 2025, so the streak may not persist. | ||
Revenue is declining 1% and momentum score is 2.6 of 10, with falling on-balance volume pointing to distribution of shares.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive and momentum recovers above 4.5 within 12 months.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising, so the weakness may be a pullback in an uptrend rather than a confirmed decline.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -62% of net income and quality score of 2.8 below the 4.0 floor, and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion should turn positive and quality score should rise toward 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterWorking-capital swings in commodity distribution routinely distort cash flow, so negative conversion may be timing rather than structural weakness.
The business carries a high-severity commodity concentration in corn and an unsafe high dividend yield flagged as a yield trap.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Corn exposure risk stays contained and dividend safety score improves above 4.3.
CounterA weak corn price cycle or margin squeeze could pressure earnings and force the dividend into question.
The Andersons trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x and an attractive P/E versus peers, with analyst upside of 35%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation stays near 10x forward earnings while the price moves toward the $73.67 analyst target.
CounterLow multiples can reflect a low-quality, thin-margin commodity business, so cheapness may be a value trap rather than an opportunity.
The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 54.65%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats at the report due 2026-11-03 and in following quarters.
CounterBeats come against low, volatile estimates, and the company missed as recently as August 2025, so the streak may not persist.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.6 |
| Net margin | 0.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -62% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.6 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.1 |
| 52w position | 5.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 106%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.72
Upside
+17.5%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.6 and asymmetric R:R of 2.72.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Technical at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Momentum at 2.5, and Quality at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x without an increase in earnings estimates.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Earnings Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -50% for 2 more quarters.
- P4Stagnant Revenue And Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -5% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Corn Commodity Concentration Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score drops below 3.0 from current 4.3.