Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $325.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%).
Kinsale Capital Group is a P&C insurer focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the US, selling through ~227 independent brokers. Gross written premiums reached $2.0 billion in 2025 (+5.7%), with a 75.9% combined ratio and 29.3% return on equity.
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $325.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-5 brokers61%10-K Item 1A: 'Of our 2025 gross written premiums, 60.6%, or $1.2 billion, were distributed through five of our approximately 227 brokers'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'We underwrite a significant portion of our insurance in California, Florida and Texas.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-04Item 5.02LOWDirector Frederick L. Russell, Jr. will not stand for re-election at 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with the company. Board to decrease from 10 to 9 directors.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $325.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $312.42. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $358.33 (+9.9% upside). Prior stop was $312.42. Stop-loss: $312.42.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover KNSL with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $360.
What does Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. do?Kinsale Capital Group is a P&C insurer focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the US, selling...
Kinsale Capital Group is a P&C insurer focused exclusively on the excess and surplus lines market in the US, selling through ~227 independent brokers. Gross written premiums reached $2.0 billion in 2025 (+5.7%), with a 75.9% combined ratio and 29.3% return on equity.