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Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $324.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top three brokers (47.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Kinsale Capital Group is a property and casualty insurance company focused exclusively on the US excess and surplus lines market, generating $2.0B in gross written premiums in 2025 with a 75.9% combined ratio and 29.3% return on equity. Revenue comes from underwriting premiums... Read more

$324.77+9.0% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#14 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.04%
IncomeYield0.31%(5y avg 0.17%)Payout3.35%sustainable
Stop $302.07Target $353.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$356.89+9.9%9 analysts
$353.86our TP
$324.77price
$356.89mean
$267
$442

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $324.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top three brokers (47.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.6Qual7.0Grw6.2Mom6.4Sent4.1Ins3.4Peer3.9Tech4.1Risk5.45.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top three brokers (47.6%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)14.9
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE29.7%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.95
Dividend0.31%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.96neutral
IV41%normal
Max Pain$230-29.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'We underwrite a significant portion of our insurance in California, Florida and Texas. Any economic downturn in any such state could have an adverse effect on our business'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia20%
    10-K Item 1: 'California| | $| 388,587 | | | 19.7 | %' of gross written premiums in 2025
  • MEDIUMCustomerRSG Specialty, LLC19%
    10-K Item 1: 'RSG Specialty, LLC, which produced $371.2 million, or 18.8%, of our gross written premiums'
  • HIGHCustomertop three brokers48%
    10-K Item 1A: 'three of which accounted for 47.6%, or $941.4 million, of our 2025 gross written premiums'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOW
    EVP and CIO Diane Schnupp retired effective April 29, 2026. Salmaan Allibhai (former SVP and Chief Actuary) promoted to EVP, Chief Analytics and Technology Officer effective same date. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
5.9
Quality Rank
8.3
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $293.78Resistance $361.08

Price Targets

$302
$354
A.Upside+9.0%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNSL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $324.77, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top three brokers (47.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $353.86 (+9.0%), stop $302.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KNSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $353.86 (+9.0% upside). Target $353.86 (+9.0%), stop $302.07 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $302.07.

What are the risks of investing in KNSL?

Concentration risk — Customer: top three brokers (47.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is KNSL overvalued or undervalued?

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KNSL?

18 analysts cover KNSL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $357.

What does Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. do?Kinsale Capital Group is a property and casualty insurance company focused exclusively on the US excess and surplus...

Kinsale Capital Group is a property and casualty insurance company focused exclusively on the US excess and surplus lines market, generating $2.0B in gross written premiums in 2025 with a 75.9% combined ratio and 29.3% return on equity. Revenue comes from underwriting premiums distributed through ~227 independent brokers; no single broker accounts for more than 18.8% of GWP.

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