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KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.Hold5.8·$312.69+0.28%
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Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and territories, distributed through approximately 227 independent brokers with no underwriting authority granted to outside parties. In 2025, gross written premiums grew... Read more

$312.69+3.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#12 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield13.58%
IncomeYield0.32%(5y avg 0.17%)Payout3.35%sustainable
Stop $294.01Target $322.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$354.67+13.4%9 analysts
$322.54our TP
$312.69price
$354.67mean
$267
$442

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

About Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

Kinsale Capital Group wrote $2.0 billion in gross written premiums during 2025, a 5.7% increase year-over-year, exclusively within the U.S. excess and surplus lines market spanning all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The combined ratio of 75.9% and return on equity of 29.3% for 2025 reflect a model that retains all underwriting and claims authority in-house. A.M. Best rates the operating subsidiary Kinsale Insurance Company "A" (Excellent).

Revenue flows from gross written premiums split 70.7% casualty and 29.3% property in 2025. Commercial lines accounted for 97.0% of premiums; personal lines — primarily high-value homeowners — represented 3.0%. Distribution runs through approximately 227 independent brokers, five of which together produced 60.6%, or $1.2 billion, of 2025 gross written premiums. The three largest — RSG Specialty ($371.2 million, 18.8%), AmWINS Brokerage ($339.0 million, 17.1%), and CRC Commercial Solutions ($231.2 million, 11.7%) — carry no minimum-volume obligations. California, Florida, and Texas represent the three largest states by gross written premium at 19.7%, 15.3%, and 14.0% respectively, flagged in the 10-K as states where any economic downturn could adversely affect results. The expense ratio of 20.8% and loss ratio of 55.1% in 2025 reflect a proprietary technology platform that allows underwriters to reply to most submissions within 24 hours without delegating binding authority.

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Broker concentration at the distribution layer poses a dependency risk the 10-K explicitly calls out: the five-broker cluster generating 60.6% of premiums operates under relationships that "may be discontinued at any time." A downgrade of Kinsale Insurance Company's A.M. Best "A" rating — triggered by reserve deficiency, investment losses, or regulatory pressure — could cause the largest brokers to redirect submissions to higher-rated competitors, with no contractual volume floor providing protection. The reinsurance program adds a separate annual renewal risk: the 10-K notes reinsurance availability is subject to prevailing market conditions and cannot be guaranteed on acceptable terms.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

From Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE29.7%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.91
Dividend0.32%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.61bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$230-26.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-5 brokers61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Of our 2025 gross written premiums, 60.6%, or $1.2 billion, were distributed through five of our approximately 227 brokers'
  • LOWCustomerRSG Specialty LLC19%
    10-K Item 1: 'our largest brokers were RSG Specialty, LLC, which produced $371.2 million, or 18.8%, of our gross written premiums'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'We underwrite a significant portion of our insurance in California, Florida and Texas.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CIO Diane Schnupp retired effective April 29, 2026. Successor: Salmaan Allibhai promoted to EVP and Chief Analytics and Technology Officer effective April 29, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Retirement Agreement filed for former CIO Diane Schnupp. Severance: $20,833.33 per pay period Apr 30–Jul 31 2026; $1,041.67 per period Aug 15 2026–Mar 1 2028. Equity awards vest through Mar 2, 2028.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.2
Bollinger
2.7
Support Resistance
3.9
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $287.20Resistance $329.12

Price Targets

$294
$323
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNSL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $322.54 (+3.2%), stop $294.01 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KNSL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $322.54 (+3.2% upside). Target $322.54 (+3.2%), stop $294.01 (−6.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $294.01.

What are the risks of investing in KNSL?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 brokers (60.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is KNSL overvalued or undervalued?

Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KNSL?

18 analysts cover KNSL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $355.

What does Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. do?Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and...

Kinsale Capital Group underwrites hard-to-place excess and surplus lines risks across all 50 U.S. states and territories, distributed through approximately 227 independent brokers with no underwriting authority granted to outside parties. In 2025, gross written premiums grew 5.7% to $2.0 billion, with a combined ratio of 75.9% and a 29.3% return on equity.

Related stocks: SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · ORI (Old Republic International Corp) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)
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