Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.91
- ▸Attractively valued
ALL · Why this verdict
Why Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Allstate is a high-quality property and casualty insurer with a 46% ROE and wide moat, but the price is above the analyst target so upside is limited until a pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E of 9.2x is attractive and peers screen worse on P/E. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 1.91 shows growth does not justify the multiple if earnings flatten. | ||
Return on equity of 46% with 19% margins and a Piotroski score of 7 of 9 indicate a high-quality franchise. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance returns swing with catastrophe losses and pricing cycles, so a benign year can overstate sustainable returns. | ||
The $259.87 price is above the $242.35 analyst target by about 6.7%, leaving no margin to the target. Targets | Analyst targets are raised above the current price or the price pulls back below it. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets lag price and an overbought RSI of 76 can persist while momentum continues. | ||
The Allstate Protection segment accounts for 93.9% of revenue, concentrating exposure to auto and home insurance cycles. Bear case | Segment mix stays stable while underwriting margins hold. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single catastrophe year or regulatory rate cap hits nearly the whole business. | ||
Insiders sold about $23.8M across 5 transactions with no buys while RSI sits at 76. Insider | Insider selling stays below 0.05% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sales are only 0.036% of market cap and may be pre-planned. | ||
Forward P/E of 9.2x is attractive and peers screen worse on P/E.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings hold.
CounterA PEG of 1.91 shows growth does not justify the multiple if earnings flatten.
Return on equity of 46% with 19% margins and a Piotroski score of 7 of 9 indicate a high-quality franchise.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterInsurance returns swing with catastrophe losses and pricing cycles, so a benign year can overstate sustainable returns.
The $259.87 price is above the $242.35 analyst target by about 6.7%, leaving no margin to the target.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price or the price pulls back below it.
CounterTargets lag price and an overbought RSI of 76 can persist while momentum continues.
The Allstate Protection segment accounts for 93.9% of revenue, concentrating exposure to auto and home insurance cycles.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix stays stable while underwriting margins hold.
CounterA single catastrophe year or regulatory rate cap hits nearly the whole business.
Insiders sold about $23.8M across 5 transactions with no buys while RSI sits at 76.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays below 0.05% of market cap.
CounterThe sales are only 0.036% of market cap and may be pre-planned.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.4 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 1.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 46%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $23,757,317 (0.036% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $170
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $267.55 vs the analyst target $242.35: -9.4% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|V8:TARGET_REACHED|EARNINGS:BUY_DEFERRED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.63
Upside
-9.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.6=NEGATIVE outcome against Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1 and asymmetric R:R of -0.63.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, Growth at 7.7, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.9, Insider at 4.1, and Sentiment at 6.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Return Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 25% from current 46%.
- P2Cheap Earnings Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15%.
- P4Single Segment Concentration
Trip ifAllstate Protection share of revenue exceeds 96%.
- P5Insider Selling Overbought
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap over 90 days.