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Old Republic International Corp (ORI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto, workers' comp, property, warranty) and Title Insurance segments, generating $9.1B in 2025 revenues. The company emphasizes underwriting discipline over cycles;... Read more

$39.58+5.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#4 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield22.00%
IncomeYield3.15%(5y avg 3.31%)Payout29.19%sustainable
Stop $37.90Target $41.91(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$42.00+6.1%2 analysts
$41.91our TP
$39.58price
$42.00mean
$44

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Old Republic International Corp

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.9
P/E (Fwd)12.0
Mkt Cap$9.8B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE17.3%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta0.67
Dividend3.15%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductCommercial Auto42%
    10-K Item 1: 'Commercial auto remains the Company's largest line of coverage and accounted for 42.1% of Specialty Insurance's consolidated net premiums earned in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.31Resistance $42.77

Price Targets

$38
$42
A.Upside+5.9%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ORI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $39.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $41.91 (+5.9%), stop $37.90 (−4.4%), A.R:R -2.0:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ORI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.91 (+5.9% upside). Target $41.91 (+5.9%), stop $37.90 (−4.4%), A.R:R -2.0:1. Stop-loss: $37.90.

What are the risks of investing in ORI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is ORI overvalued or undervalued?

Old Republic International Corp trades at a P/E of 9.9 (forward 12.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ORI?

8 analysts cover ORI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Old Republic International Corp do?Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto,...

Old Republic International is a Chicago-based insurance holding company with Specialty Insurance (commercial auto, workers' comp, property, warranty) and Title Insurance segments, generating $9.1B in 2025 revenues. The company emphasizes underwriting discipline over cycles; investment income supplements underwriting results.

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