Hanover Insurance Group has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 25.1% and trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.22, but the stock has already reached its analyst target and sits 0.7% from its 52-week high with negative asymmetry and declining forward earnings estimates.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Attractive Valuation With Peg Discount↓Deteriorating
- Declining Earnings Estimates↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $249.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away).
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $249.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Hanover Insurance Group Inc
Latest news
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE:THG) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings - StockStory — StockStory Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance Group (NYSE:THG) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS The Hanover Insurance faces earnings test amid margin pressure By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Heads Into Q3 Earnings With Valuation Questions Still Open - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Hanover Insurance Group (THG) Stock Looks Stretched After A 115% Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicMichigan19%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
- MEDIUMGeographicMichigan and Massachusetts personal lines50%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% of our Personal Lines net premiums written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOWPatricia A. Norton-Gatto (SVP/Corporate Controller) appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective May 13, 2026. Jeffrey M. Farber (EVP/CFO) no longer serves as PAO but retains CFO role. No reason cited for the designation change.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $249.93, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $209.02 reached (−16.4%), stop $239.01 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $209.02 reached (−16.4% from $249.93); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $209.02 reached (−16.4%), stop $239.01 (−4.6%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $239.01.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).
Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts rate THG, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $240.
What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%),...
Hanover Insurance Group underwrites property and casualty insurance in the U.S. through Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, distributed exclusively through independent agents. The company generated approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025, with Michigan representing 18.7% of total premiums and roughly half of Personal Lines premiums concentrated in Michigan and Massachusetts.