Skip to main content

Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $186.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments distributed through independent agents, generating approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025. Business is concentrated in Michigan (18.7%) and... Read more

$186.89+1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#13 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $176.98Target $187.83(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$198.13+6.0%8 analysts
$187.83our TP
$186.89price
$198.13mean
$208

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $186.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.4% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn10.0%
ROE20.6%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.30
Dividend2.14%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$150-19.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'
  • LOWGeographicMassachusetts8.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 18.7% and 8.0% of our net premiums written in our business were generated in the states of Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.4
Quality Rank
5.1
Value Rank
6.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
3.0
Gap
3.0
52w Position
9.4
Extreme gap up (8.0%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $171.54Resistance $191.66

Price Targets

$177
$188
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $186.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $187.83 (+0.5%), stop $176.98 (−5.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the THG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $187.83 (+1.2% upside). Target $187.83 (+0.5%), stop $176.98 (−5.6%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $176.98.

What are the risks of investing in THG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.4% away).

Is THG overvalued or undervalued?

Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about THG?

11 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $198.

What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments...

Hanover Insurance Group is a U.S. P&C insurer with Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other segments distributed through independent agents, generating approximately $6.3 billion in net premiums written in 2025. Business is concentrated in Michigan (18.7%) and Massachusetts (8.0%) with significant Core Commercial and Specialty exposure in California and Texas.

Related stocks: HCI (HCI Group, Inc.) · SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) · SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro) · STC (Stewart Information Services Co) · MCY (Mercury General Corporation)