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Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $193.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Michigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Hanover Insurance Group underwrites P&C insurance via independent agents across Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, generating $6.3B net premiums written in 2025. Michigan and Massachusetts together drive ~50% of Personal Lines premiums;... Read more

$193.79+0.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#8 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.51%
IncomeYield1.92%(5y avg 2.26%)Payout18.67%sustainable
Stop $184.81Target $195.60(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$202.38+4.4%8 analysts
$195.60our TP
$193.79price
$202.38mean
$212

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $193.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Michigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Hanover Insurance Group Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Michigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$6.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE21.7%
Rev Growth6.1%
Beta0.32
Dividend1.92%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV23%low

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMichigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines)
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 50% of our Personal Lines net premiums written is generated in the combined states of Michigan and Massachusetts'
  • MEDIUMGeographicMichigan (personal automobile)41%
    10-K Item 1: 'Michigan business represents approximately 41% of our total personal automobile net premiums written'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $177.04Resistance $199.59

Price Targets

$185
$196
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $193.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Michigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $195.60 (+0.9%), stop $184.81 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the THG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $195.60 (+0.9% upside). Target $195.60 (+0.9%), stop $184.81 (−4.9%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $184.81.

What are the risks of investing in THG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Michigan and Massachusetts (Personal Lines); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away).

Is THG overvalued or undervalued?

Hanover Insurance Group Inc trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about THG?

13 analysts cover THG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $202.

What does Hanover Insurance Group Inc do?Hanover Insurance Group underwrites P&C insurance via independent agents across Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%),...

Hanover Insurance Group underwrites P&C insurance via independent agents across Core Commercial (36%), Specialty (23%), and Personal Lines (41%) segments, generating $6.3B net premiums written in 2025. Michigan and Massachusetts together drive ~50% of Personal Lines premiums; Michigan is 18.7% of total net premiums written and 38.3% of Personal Lines alone.

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