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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS.

AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential mortgage-backed securities. It earns net interest income from the spread between MBS yields and repurchase agreement borrowing costs, maintaining 6-10x leverage with... Read more

$10.32+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#12 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield13.92%(5y avg 13.60%)Payout112.50%
Stop $10.00Target $10.85(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$11.44+10.9%9 analysts
$10.85our TP
$10.32price
$11.44mean
$10
$13

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — AGNC Investment Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Margin of safety: 46%
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.1
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn91.7%
ROE13.2%
Rev Growth
Beta1.33
Dividend13.92%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$5-51.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAgency RMBS
    10-K Item 1: 'Our investments consist predominantly of Agency RMBS which, in addition to carrying a GSE or U.S. Government guarantee against loss of principal'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyFICC GCF Repo service
    10-K Item 1: 'FICC's GCF Repo service, which represents a significant portion of our total borrowing capacity'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Macd
2.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.30Resistance $11.07

Price Targets

$10
$11
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGNC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.32 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $10.00. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the AGNC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.85 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $10.00. Stop-loss: $10.00.

What are the risks of investing in AGNC?

Concentration risk — Product: Agency RMBS; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is AGNC overvalued or undervalued?

AGNC Investment Corp. trades at a P/E of 8.1 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGNC?

20 analysts cover AGNC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $11.

What does AGNC Investment Corp. do?AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential...

AGNC Investment Corp. is a leveraged Agency RMBS mortgage REIT investing primarily in GSE-guaranteed residential mortgage-backed securities. It earns net interest income from the spread between MBS yields and repurchase agreement borrowing costs, maintaining 6-10x leverage with 54 full-time employees.

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