Value
4.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 9.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
AGNC · Why this verdict
Why AGNC Investment (AGNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AGNC is a mortgage REIT offering a 16.6% dividend and 44% margins, but the price sits 3.5% above the analyst target, quality is below average, earnings have been erratic and the stock is in a downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AGNC pays a 16.6% dividend and trades at 9.7x price to operating cash flow, which makes it an income vehicle for yield seekers. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained at current levels over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 16.6% yield with a dividend safety score of 5.5 is a classic sign the payout may be cut if book value erodes. | ||
At $8.65 the stock is 3.5% above the $8.35 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.64 against 5.5% downside. Estimated upside | Analyst targets are raised above $9.00 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMortgage REIT targets follow book value and rate expectations and can be revised up if spreads widen favourably. | ||
Quality of 4.8 reflects a business with no competitive moat and very low ROE of 0.3 score and ROA of 0.1 score, despite 44% margins. Quality breakdown | Quality score improves above 5.5 as returns on equity recover. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAs a leveraged mortgage REIT, results hinge on interest-rate spreads rather than competitive advantage, so quality scores will stay low. | ||
Earnings have been erratic with a -242% surprise in April 2026 and a -60.9% average surprise, though the last two quarters were in line or better. Avg surprise pct | EPS surprises stay within a few percent of consensus for the next two reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single large quarterly miss can recur because mortgage REIT results depend on hedging gains and losses. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average falling 1.0% per 30 days, with a death cross, though momentum is 4.7 and the MACD is improving. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 4.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShort interest of 10% and a confirmed downtrend show the market still expects weakness. | ||
AGNC pays a 16.6% dividend and trades at 9.7x price to operating cash flow, which makes it an income vehicle for yield seekers.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained at current levels over the next 12 months.
CounterA 16.6% yield with a dividend safety score of 5.5 is a classic sign the payout may be cut if book value erodes.
At $8.65 the stock is 3.5% above the $8.35 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.64 against 5.5% downside.
↑ImprovingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $9.00 within 12 months.
CounterMortgage REIT targets follow book value and rate expectations and can be revised up if spreads widen favourably.
Quality of 4.8 reflects a business with no competitive moat and very low ROE of 0.3 score and ROA of 0.1 score, despite 44% margins.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score improves above 5.5 as returns on equity recover.
CounterAs a leveraged mortgage REIT, results hinge on interest-rate spreads rather than competitive advantage, so quality scores will stay low.
Earnings have been erratic with a -242% surprise in April 2026 and a -60.9% average surprise, though the last two quarters were in line or better.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS surprises stay within a few percent of consensus for the next two reports.
CounterA single large quarterly miss can recur because mortgage REIT results depend on hedging gains and losses.
Price is below a 200-day average falling 1.0% per 30 days, with a death cross, though momentum is 4.7 and the MACD is improving.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum stays above 4.5.
CounterShort interest of 10% and a confirmed downtrend show the market still expects weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.3 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.9 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 44%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,964,575 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.6 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 16.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.41
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.38>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 6.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 6.5, Technical at 6.1, and Sentiment at 5.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Momentum at 3.3, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Dividend Yield Income
Trip ifThe dividend yield falls below 12% because of a payout cut from the current 16.6%.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.17 stop-loss level.
- P3Below Average Quality Rate Sensitivity
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% from the current 44%.
- P4Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend Recovery Attempt
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope worsens to below -3% per 30 days from the current -1.0%.