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Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $39.55 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5.

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

$38.52+34.3% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#12 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield0.95%
IncomeYield0.30%(5y avg 0.79%)Payout4.58%sustainable
Entry $39.55(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $35.84Target $51.42(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$60.50+57.1%4 analysts
$51.42our TP
$38.52price
$60.50mean
$63

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $39.55 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 8.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Alamos Gold Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$16.2B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn51.2%
ROE25.9%
Rev Growth79.2%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.30%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV60%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.32Resistance $45.44

Price Targets

$36
$40
$51
A.Upside+33.5%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGI stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $39.55 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.01, quality 8.0/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $51.42 (+33.5%), stop $35.84 (−7.5%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.42 (+34.3% upside). Target $51.42 (+33.5%), stop $35.84 (−7.5%), Setup A.R:R 4.9:1. Stop-loss: $35.84.

What are the risks of investing in AGI?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.8): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is AGI overvalued or undervalued?

Alamos Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AGI?

15 analysts cover AGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Alamos Gold Inc. do?Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company...

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

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