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AGIAlamos Gold Inc.Buy Wait7.2·$29.48-0.34%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Alamos Gold combines high-quality operating characteristics — 51% margins, a wide moat, and 79% revenue growth — with an attractively valued setup at 11x forward earnings and a roughly 4.4-to-1 risk/reward, though free cash flow converting to only 14% of net income and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.8 remain key risks to watch.

Thesis pillars

  • Pullback In Rising UptrendStable
  • Elite Margins Wide MoatStable
  • Attractive Valuation UpsideStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Earnings in 2 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW.

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

$29.48+36.8% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#6 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.24%
IncomeYield0.54%(5y avg 0.78%)Payout4.58%sustainable
Entry $30.42(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $28.14Target $40.38(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$47.50+61.1%4 analysts
$40.38our TP
$29.48price
$47.50mean
$60

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/11 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27

Recent Developments — Alamos Gold Inc.

Generated 2026-07-27T19:52:45Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20262d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$12.4B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn51.2%
ROE25.9%
Rev Growth79.2%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.54%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$39+32.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 2d<=7dMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.63Resistance $32.34

Price Targets

$28
$30
$40
A.Upside+36.8%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 2 days - binary event risk
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (2d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGI stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $30.42 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $40.38 (+37.0%), stop $28.14 (−4.8%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.38 (+36.8% upside). Target $40.38 (+37.0%), stop $28.14 (−4.8%), A.R:R 4.8:1. Stop-loss: $28.14.

Is AGI overvalued or undervalued?

Alamos Gold Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about AGI?

15 analysts cover AGI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Alamos Gold Inc. do?Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company...

Alamos Gold Inc. operates as a gold producer in Canada and Mexico. It primarily explores for gold deposits. The company was founded in 2003 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)
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