Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AGI · Why this verdict
Why Alamos Gold (AGI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alamos Gold is a high-quality, wide-moat gold producer with 47% margins and 42% margin of safety, but a confirmed downtrend, a 50% drawdown and weak cash conversion argue for patience.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price is below a 200-day average falling 2.6% per 30 days, with a death cross, RSI of 28 and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend. Momentum breakdown | Momentum improves above 4.5 and the 200-day slope flattens. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling volume-based accumulation and a 50% drawdown show sellers still dominate; oversold readings can persist. | ||
Alamos earns strong 47% margins with a wide economic moat and an 8/9 Piotroski score, marking a high-quality business. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 47% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGold-miner margins track the gold price and can compress quickly if bullion falls further. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at only 21% of net income and a Rule of 40 score of 20, which fails. Quality breakdown | FCF/net income recovers above 50% as capital spending normalises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy growth capex may be depressing free cash flow temporarily, but the low conversion also limits shareholder returns. | ||
Forward P/E of 9.7x, a 42% margin of safety and a $35.13 analyst target imply 28.0% upside versus 10.0% downside from $27.45. Estimated upside | Price moves toward the analyst target as the discount closes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is weakly supported. | ||
Earnings were mixed in recent quarters, with an average 4.3% surprise but a 2.16% miss in the latest report on 2026-10-28. Avg surprise pct | Quarterly EPS meets or exceeds consensus in the next two reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA flat-to-negative surprise pattern suggests operating execution is not improving. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average falling 2.6% per 30 days, with a death cross, RSI of 28 and falling on-balance volume, confirming a downtrend.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum improves above 4.5 and the 200-day slope flattens.
CounterFalling volume-based accumulation and a 50% drawdown show sellers still dominate; oversold readings can persist.
Alamos earns strong 47% margins with a wide economic moat and an 8/9 Piotroski score, marking a high-quality business.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 47% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterGold-miner margins track the gold price and can compress quickly if bullion falls further.
Earnings quality is a red flag with FCF at only 21% of net income and a Rule of 40 score of 20, which fails.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/net income recovers above 50% as capital spending normalises.
CounterHeavy growth capex may be depressing free cash flow temporarily, but the low conversion also limits shareholder returns.
Forward P/E of 9.7x, a 42% margin of safety and a $35.13 analyst target imply 28.0% upside versus 10.0% downside from $27.45.
↓DeterioratingEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as the discount closes.
CounterOnly 3 analysts cover the stock, so the target is weakly supported.
Earnings were mixed in recent quarters, with an average 4.3% surprise but a 2.16% miss in the latest report on 2026-10-28.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS meets or exceeds consensus in the next two reports.
CounterA flat-to-negative surprise pattern suggests operating execution is not improving.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.9 |
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 47%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 21% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
4.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 3.7 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 2.6 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.61
- ▸High IV: 65%
- ▸Above max pain $23
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Value play: 42% MoS with quality 7.5.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.90
Upside
+27.1%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.7
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.3<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 2.90.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Quality at 7.5, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Growth at 4.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.90 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Wide Moat Producer
Trip ifNet margin falls below 30% from the current 47%.
- P2Weak Cash Conversion Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 10% from the current 21%.
- P3Valuation And Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the $24.25 stop-loss level.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Capitulation
Trip if200-day average slope worsens to below -5% per 30 days from the current -2.6%.
- P5Mixed Earnings Delivery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.