Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AGI · Why this verdict
Why Alamos Gold (AGI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Rising on-balance volume signals underlying accumulation, and with the 200-day moving average still advancing at approximately 5.3% per month, the current price pullback below that average appears to be within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Momentum breakdown | Price advances above the $39.55 entry target and sustains above the 200-day moving average over the next three months as accumulation pressure translates into price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock currently trades below its 200-day moving average, and with high implied volatility at 97%, any macro shock or earnings disappointment could convert this pullback into a more sustained decline — the pullback-in-uptrend characterization is conditional on the average not flattening. | ||
Operating margins of 51%, a return on equity of 26%, and a Rule of 40 score of 87 characterize this as a high-quality franchise with an identifiable wide moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 — the underlying business economics are strong across multiple quality dimensions. Quality breakdown | Margins sustain above 45% and free cash flow conversion improves above 25% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming that headline earnings quality is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow amounts to only 14% of net income — flagged as an earnings quality red flag — meaning reported earnings significantly overstate the cash the business actually generates; this gap limits capital return capacity and may mask reinvestment pressures. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11x and a near-zero PEG ratio, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its growth rate, with roughly 27% headroom to the analyst consensus target of $47.81 and a risk/reward of approximately 4.4 to 1 in favor of upside. Valuation breakdown | Price closes at least half the gap to $47.81 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows and investor recognition of the quality-growth combination improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 4.8 adds meaningful leverage risk; high implied volatility at 97% signals significant market uncertainty, which can keep multiples depressed even when fundamentals support expansion. | ||
Revenue grew 79% year over year — a pace that, even if it decelerates meaningfully, would represent a step-change in absolute earnings power that could drive a sustained re-rating over the next several quarters. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for the next two reporting periods, demonstrating that the growth trajectory is durable rather than a one-period anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 79% growth figure carries low data confidence, and base effects from such an extraordinary growth year will create increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons; a sharp deceleration would leave the stock without a clear re-rating catalyst. | ||
Three consecutive earnings beats were followed by an inline result in the most recent quarter, with an average positive surprise of 3.4% over the trailing four periods — a pattern consistent with measured guidance discipline through a period of rapid growth. Earnings | EPS surprises return to positive territory over the next two reporting periods, reestablishing the beat pattern ahead of the July earnings date. | →Stable |
| CounterThe inline result in the most recent quarter broke the beat streak; with high implied volatility and the price currently below the 200-day moving average, the market may already be pricing in guidance uncertainty, limiting the upside from any resumed beat pattern. | ||
Rising on-balance volume signals underlying accumulation, and with the 200-day moving average still advancing at approximately 5.3% per month, the current price pullback below that average appears to be within an intact uptrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price advances above the $39.55 entry target and sustains above the 200-day moving average over the next three months as accumulation pressure translates into price.
CounterThe stock currently trades below its 200-day moving average, and with high implied volatility at 97%, any macro shock or earnings disappointment could convert this pullback into a more sustained decline — the pullback-in-uptrend characterization is conditional on the average not flattening.
Operating margins of 51%, a return on equity of 26%, and a Rule of 40 score of 87 characterize this as a high-quality franchise with an identifiable wide moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 — the underlying business economics are strong across multiple quality dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins sustain above 45% and free cash flow conversion improves above 25% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming that headline earnings quality is improving.
CounterFree cash flow amounts to only 14% of net income — flagged as an earnings quality red flag — meaning reported earnings significantly overstate the cash the business actually generates; this gap limits capital return capacity and may mask reinvestment pressures.
At a forward P/E of 11x and a near-zero PEG ratio, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its growth rate, with roughly 27% headroom to the analyst consensus target of $47.81 and a risk/reward of approximately 4.4 to 1 in favor of upside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes at least half the gap to $47.81 within 12 months as the valuation discount narrows and investor recognition of the quality-growth combination improves.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 4.8 adds meaningful leverage risk; high implied volatility at 97% signals significant market uncertainty, which can keep multiples depressed even when fundamentals support expansion.
Revenue grew 79% year over year — a pace that, even if it decelerates meaningfully, would represent a step-change in absolute earnings power that could drive a sustained re-rating over the next several quarters.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 30% year over year for the next two reporting periods, demonstrating that the growth trajectory is durable rather than a one-period anomaly.
CounterThe 79% growth figure carries low data confidence, and base effects from such an extraordinary growth year will create increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons; a sharp deceleration would leave the stock without a clear re-rating catalyst.
Three consecutive earnings beats were followed by an inline result in the most recent quarter, with an average positive surprise of 3.4% over the trailing four periods — a pattern consistent with measured guidance discipline through a period of rapid growth.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises return to positive territory over the next two reporting periods, reestablishing the beat pattern ahead of the July earnings date.
CounterThe inline result in the most recent quarter broke the beat streak; with high implied volatility and the price currently below the 200-day moving average, the market may already be pricing in guidance uncertainty, limiting the upside from any resumed beat pattern.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alamos Gold combines high-quality operating characteristics — 51% margins, a wide moat, and 79% revenue growth — with an attractively valued setup at 11x forward earnings and a roughly 4.4-to-1 risk/reward, though free cash flow converting to only 14% of net income and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.8 remain key risks to watch.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.6 |
| ROA | 8.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.2 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 51%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 14% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 79% YoY
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 68%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 1.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 0.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.04
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 51.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.33
Upside
+42.7%
Downside
12.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.0) with weak momentum (2.3)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -43% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Quality at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.7, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.33 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Margins Wide Moat
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Upside
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x, eliminating the current valuation discount.
- P3Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Pullback In Rising Uptrend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5, causing the momentum gate to fail.