Skip to main content

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $211.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Overbought (RSI 75).

ADP provides cloud-based human capital management software and outsourcing services to over 1.1 million clients in 140+ countries, paying over 42 million workers globally via Employer Services and PEO segments. Revenue comes from subscription and service contracts; ADP moved... Read more

$211.90+9.4% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#63 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $200.49Target $230.82(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$256.47+21.0%15 analysts
$230.82our TP
$211.90price
$256.47mean
$332

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $211.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Overbought (RSI 75). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Recent Earnings detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.4%
Overbought (RSI 75)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.1
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$86.2B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn20.0%
ROE73.8%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta0.86
Dividend3.16%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$130-38.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.6
52w Position
3.1
Gap
6.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
5.8
Quality Rank
8.5
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $188.16Resistance $215.17

Price Targets

$200
$231
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 0.9:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $211.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Overbought (RSI 75). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $230.82 (+8.9%), stop $200.49 (−5.7%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $230.82 (+9.4% upside). Target $230.82 (+8.9%), stop $200.49 (−5.7%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $200.49.

What are the risks of investing in ADP?

Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Overbought (RSI 75); Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADP overvalued or undervalued?

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADP?

23 analysts cover ADP with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $256.

What does Automatic Data Processing, Inc. do?ADP provides cloud-based human capital management software and outsourcing services to over 1.1 million clients in 140+...

ADP provides cloud-based human capital management software and outsourcing services to over 1.1 million clients in 140+ countries, paying over 42 million workers globally via Employer Services and PEO segments. Revenue comes from subscription and service contracts; ADP moved more than $3.3 trillion in client funds and processed 78M+ employee year-end tax statements in FY2025.

Related stocks: PTC (PTC Inc.) · INTU (Intuit Inc.) · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.) · ZM (Zoom Communications, Inc.) · ADBE (Adobe Inc.)