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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.94 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

ADP provides human capital management and payroll solutions to over 1.1 million clients paying 42 million workers across 140+ countries through Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segments, including platforms RUN (940K+ small businesses), Workforce... Read more

$214.94+2.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#65 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.54%
IncomeYield3.17%(5y avg 2.02%)Payout60.45%
Stop $201.66Target $220.02(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$244.47+13.7%15 analysts
$220.02our TP
$214.94price
$244.47mean
$190
$305

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.94 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$85.7B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE71.2%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta0.84
Dividend3.17%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV41%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
2.3
52w Position
3.3
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $194.90Resistance $216.55

Price Targets

$202
$220
A.Upside+2.4%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.6% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.94 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $201.66. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $220.02 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $201.66. Stop-loss: $201.66.

What are the risks of investing in ADP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADP overvalued or undervalued?

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ADP?

23 analysts cover ADP with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $244.

What does Automatic Data Processing, Inc. do?ADP provides human capital management and payroll solutions to over 1.1 million clients paying 42 million workers...

ADP provides human capital management and payroll solutions to over 1.1 million clients paying 42 million workers across 140+ countries through Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segments, including platforms RUN (940K+ small businesses), Workforce Now (90K+ mid-large businesses), and TotalSource PEO (18K+ clients, 750K+ worksite employees). Revenue is subscription-based with compliance, benefits, talent, and payroll services.

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