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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Wait for pullback to $246.42. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.50. Engine's entry $246.42 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Adobe provides cloud-based creative, document productivity, and digital experience software globally across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud (Acrobat), and Experience Cloud segments serving business professionals, creators, and marketing teams. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$254.50+22.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#11 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.02%
Entry $246.42(50-day MA)Stop $229.17Target $301.10(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.0:1Setup A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$327.28+28.6%34 analysts
$301.10our TP
$254.50price
$327.28mean
$220
$487

Wait for pullback to $246.42. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.50. Engine's entry $246.42 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Adobe Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.9
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$103.3B
EV/EBITDA10.8
Profit Mgn29.5%
ROE58.8%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.42
DividendNone
Rating analysts46

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV58%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual Meeting on April 15, 2026, stockholders approved amendment of the 2019 Equity Incentive Plan adding 12 million shares to the reserve. Compensatory arrangement; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.1
Bollinger
2.3
Support Resistance
3.0
Gap
4.0
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.0>=5.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $231.74Resistance $265.09

Price Targets

$229
$246
$301
A.Upside+18.3%
A.R:R2.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.7%
Max %3.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts46
Consensus3.6/5
Avg Target$327

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-11 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADBE stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $246.42. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $254.50. Engine's entry $246.42 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $301.10 (+18.3%), stop $229.17 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADBE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $301.10 (+22.2% upside). Target $301.10 (+18.3%), stop $229.17 (−11.1%), Setup A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $229.17.

What are the risks of investing in ADBE?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADBE overvalued or undervalued?

Adobe Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADBE?

46 analysts cover ADBE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $327.

What does Adobe Inc. do?Adobe provides cloud-based creative, document productivity, and digital experience software globally across Creative...

Adobe provides cloud-based creative, document productivity, and digital experience software globally across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud (Acrobat), and Experience Cloud segments serving business professionals, creators, and marketing teams. Revenue is primarily subscription-based through individual and enterprise plans; Adobe's Firefly AI models and integrated platform create switching costs for creative professionals.

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