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Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Adobe develops creative, productivity, and marketing cloud software globally under brands including Photoshop, Acrobat, Firefly, and Adobe Experience Platform, serving creators, businesses, and marketing professionals. Revenue is primarily subscription-based via Creative Cloud,... Read more

$238.34+26.8% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#7 of 96 Software - Application
Stop $221.29Target $301.72(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$327.95+37.6%34 analysts
$301.72our TP
$238.34price
$327.95mean
$487

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.3Qual8.5Grw4.8Mom5.1Sent7.8Ins5.0Peer4.9Tech4.9Risk5.76.4OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$98.5B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn29.5%
ROE58.8%
Rev Growth12.0%
Beta1.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.71neutral
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$150-37.1% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved amendment to 2019 Equity Incentive Plan at April 15, 2026 Annual Meeting, adding 12 million shares to reserve. No director or officer departure involved.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-27Item 5.02LOW
    Executive Compensation Committee approved 2026 Performance Share Program on January 26, 2026, granting performance shares to exec team based on rTSR and Net New Sales goals over 2026-2028. Routine compensation arrangement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $224.13Resistance $258.75

Price Targets

$221
$302
A.Upside+26.6%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts45
Consensus3.6/5
Avg Target$328

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-11 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADBE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $238.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $301.72 (+26.6%), stop $221.29 (−7.7%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADBE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $301.72 (+26.8% upside). Target $301.72 (+26.6%), stop $221.29 (−7.7%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $221.29.

What are the risks of investing in ADBE?

Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ADBE overvalued or undervalued?

Adobe Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ADBE?

45 analysts cover ADBE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $328.

What does Adobe Inc. do?Adobe develops creative, productivity, and marketing cloud software globally under brands including Photoshop, Acrobat,...

Adobe develops creative, productivity, and marketing cloud software globally under brands including Photoshop, Acrobat, Firefly, and Adobe Experience Platform, serving creators, businesses, and marketing professionals. Revenue is primarily subscription-based via Creative Cloud, Acrobat, and Experience Cloud. AI is embedded across the portfolio via Firefly models and agentic capabilities.

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