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ZTOZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.Sell6.3·$22.91+0.37%
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $22.91. Consecutive earnings misses (2).

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and... Read more

$22.91+14.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 10 Integrated Freight & Logistics
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield20.22%
IncomeYield3.02%Payout40.95%sustainable
Stop $22.09Target $26.20(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$29.11+27.1%18 analysts
$26.20our TP
$22.91price
$29.11mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $22.91. Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 18, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Outperforming peers
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$17.4B
EV/EBITDA0.7
Profit Mgn17.9%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta-0.22
Dividend3.02%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$15-34.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.87Resistance $23.65

Price Targets

$22
$26
A.Upside+14.4%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ZTO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $22.91. Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $22.09. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ZTO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.20 (+14.3% upside). Prior stop was $22.09. Stop-loss: $22.09.

What are the risks of investing in ZTO?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is ZTO overvalued or undervalued?

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ZTO?

20 analysts cover ZTO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. do?ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic...

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Related stocks: PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) · FDX (FedEx Corporation) · EXPD (Expeditors International of Was) · GXO (GXO Logistics, Inc.) · CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.)
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