YPF is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company generating 43% revenue growth year-over-year and trading at a forward P/E of 9.3x, but it has missed earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, carries below-average business quality at 3.0, and shows free cash flow burning at negative 6% of revenue.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Revenue Growth Vs Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- Argentina Country Risk Earnings Distortion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.40: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.40: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — YPF Sociedad Anonima
Latest news
- NEWS Eni Enters The Upstream Of The Argentina LNG Integrated Project — benzinga Jun 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS 'Argentina's YPF Signs Letter Of Intent With Tesla To Explore Collaboration Including Rapid Charging Stations And Energy — benzinga Jun 16, 2026 positive
- NEWS 7 Stocks to Buy for the World's Best Turnaround Trade — benzinga Jun 12, 2026
- NEWS 'Chevron Among Drillers to Feed Key Argentina Shale NGL Venture' - Bloomberg — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on YPF, Raises Price Target to $48 — benzinga May 27, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.40: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.34; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $42.70. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $49.98 (+12.6% upside). Prior stop was $42.70. Stop-loss: $42.70.
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap), Negative free cash flow.
YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover YPF with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $57.
What does YPF Sociedad Anonima do?YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America...
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.