YPF is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company generating 43% revenue growth year-over-year and trading at a forward P/E of 9.3x, but it has missed earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, carries below-average business quality at 3.0, and shows free cash flow burning at negative 6% of revenue.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Revenue Growth Vs Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- Argentina Country Risk Earnings Distortion↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.41 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced..
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.41 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=9.8x,ratio=0.35x. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — YPF Sociedad Anonima
Latest news
- NEWS 'Harold Hamm launches multibillion-dollar plan to drill Argentine shale' - Financial Times — benzinga Aug 20, 2026 positive
- NEWS YPF CEO Says YPF Expects 2026 EBITDA Of $8B, Up From Previous Estimate Of $6B — benzinga Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS YPF Argentine CEO Says YPF Expects 2026 EBITDA Of $8B, Up From Previous Estimate Of $6B — benzinga Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS YPF Q2 EPS $3.07 Beats $1.78 Estimate, Sales $6.574B Miss $6.911T Estimate — benzinga Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS Eni Enters The Upstream Of The Argentina LNG Integrated Project — benzinga Jun 29, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-04T11:12:11Z.
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Thesis
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Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.41 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $48.74. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $52.66 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $48.74. Stop-loss: $48.74.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 9.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at a P/E of 27.8 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover YPF with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $61.
What does YPF Sociedad Anonima do?YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America...
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.