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YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.Hold6.6·$8.10-3.69%
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Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers... Read more

$8.10+39.9% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#5 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield51.56%
IncomeYield2.00%Payout17.07%sustainable
Stop $7.77Target $11.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$12.48+54.1%15 analysts
$11.23our TP
$8.10price
$12.48mean
$17

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA-2.1
Profit Mgn32.7%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.29
Dividend2.00%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.09bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$15+85.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.01Resistance $9.59

Price Targets

$8
$11
A.Upside+38.6%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YMM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.23 (+38.6%), stop $7.77 (−4.2%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YMM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.23 (+39.9% upside). Target $11.23 (+38.6%), stop $7.77 (−4.2%), A.R:R 4.4:1. Stop-loss: $7.77.

What are the risks of investing in YMM?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is YMM overvalued or undervalued?

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YMM?

19 analysts cover YMM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. do?Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects...

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

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