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WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.Sell4.9·$40.38-0.20%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Essential Utilities is a regulated water utility with 3 of 4 recent quarters beating expectations and rising earnings estimates, but its free cash flow is deeply negative at -117% of net income, the put/call ratio has spiked to 6.33, and the stock trades above its analyst target — creating an unfavorable entry profile despite regulatory revenue stability.

Thesis pillars

  • Negative Free Cash Flow QualityDeteriorating
  • Elevated Options Put Call RatioImproving
  • Earnings Beat With Rising EstimatesDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.38 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away).

Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a Pennsylvania corporation, is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water, wastewater, or natural gas services to an estimated 5.5 million people... Read more

$40.38-10.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#8 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.69%
IncomeYield3.62%(5y avg 2.91%)Payout70.28%
Stop $38.38Target $46.44(default +15%)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$41.60+3.0%5 analysts
$46.44our TP
$40.38price
$41.60mean
$38
$46

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.38 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.7% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$11.5B
EV/EBITDA14.8
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth3.1%
Beta0.63
Dividend3.62%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.23bullish
IV32%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.5
Revenue Growth
3.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
5.6
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.95Resistance $41.01

Price Targets

$38
$46
A.Upside-10.4%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTRG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $40.38 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $38.38. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTRG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.44 (-10.4% upside). Prior stop was $38.38. Stop-loss: $38.38.

What are the risks of investing in WTRG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.7% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is WTRG overvalued or undervalued?

Essential Utilities, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WTRG?

13 analysts cover WTRG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Essential Utilities, Inc. do?Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a...

Essential Utilities, Inc., referred to as "Essential Utilities", "Essential", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our", a Pennsylvania corporation, is the holding company for regulated utilities providing water, wastewater, or natural gas services to an estimated 5.5 million people in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, Virginia, and Kentucky under the Aqua and Peoples brands.

Related stocks: SBS (Companhia de saneamento Basico ) · CWT (California Water Service Group) · AWR (American States Water Company) · AWK (American Water Works Company, I) · HTO (H2O America)
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