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WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationHold6.1·$158.66+0.56%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Wintrust Financial is a well-run regional bank trading at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x with a perfect Piotroski score of 8/9, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong net interest margins of 32% — though limited upside to the analyst target and volume distribution in the stock suggest the near-term price appreciation may already be priced in.

Thesis pillars

  • Four Consecutive Earnings BeatsImproving
  • Attractive Bank ValuationStable
  • Strong Margin Quality ProfileDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Wintrust Financial is a $71.1 billion asset bank holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, operating 16 banking subsidiaries with 209 locations serving the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana, and west Michigan. Community banking accounts for... Read more

$158.66-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#104 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.33%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout16.87%sustainable
Stop $151.72Target $163.88(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$180.07+13.5%14 analysts
$163.88our TP
$158.66price
$180.07mean
$195

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Wintrust Financial Corporation

About Wintrust Financial Corporation

Wintrust Financial served the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana, and west Michigan through 16 banking subsidiaries and 209 locations at December 31, 2025, holding $71.1 billion in total assets. Three reportable segments produced combined net revenues: community banking at 74.7%, specialty finance at 18.4%, and wealth management at 6.9% for the year ended December 31, 2025. All 16 nationally chartered banks are supervised and regularly examined by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

Community banking generates net interest income and fee revenue from commercial and industrial loans, real estate loans, consumer loans, and a deposit franchise anchored by MaxSafe accounts that spread customer deposits across all 16 bank charters for expanded FDIC coverage. The specialty finance segment runs insurance premium financing nationally through FIRST Insurance Funding (48% commercial P&C) and Wintrust Life Finance (28% life insurance premium finance), along with accounts receivable financing (22%) and equipment leasing (2%). Wintrust Asset Finance carried a $4.5 billion leasing portfolio at December 31, 2025. Wealth management—through WPT, Wintrust Investments, GLA, and CDEC—held approximately $46.5 billion of assets under administration at year-end. Wintrust Mortgage operates retail origination offices, with the largest concentration in Chicago, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, and Los Angeles, selling originated loans into the secondary market.

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Wintrust's community banking operations are geographically concentrated in the Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin, and west Michigan footprint—the 10-K explicitly notes that, unlike larger national or regional banks, Wintrust provides banking to customers "primarily in the Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas." The State of Illinois has experienced fiscal difficulties in recent years; the 10-K flags that businesses may be encouraged to leave the state or new employers discouraged from locating there, which could weigh on loan demand and deposit growth. Net charge-offs totaled $72.3 million in 2025, down from $94.4 million in 2024, while non-performing loans stood at $185.8 million at December 31, 2025.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Wintrust Financial Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Oct 19, 202686d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn32.6%
ROE12.2%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta0.84
Dividend1.33%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV34%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.8
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 86d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $155.43Resistance $167.22

Price Targets

$152
$164
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-19 (86d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $158.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $163.88 (+3.3%), stop $151.72 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $163.88 (-1.3% upside). Target $163.88 (+3.3%), stop $151.72 (−4.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $151.72.

What are the risks of investing in WTFC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is WTFC overvalued or undervalued?

Wintrust Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WTFC?

19 analysts cover WTFC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $180.

What does Wintrust Financial Corporation do?Wintrust Financial is a $71.1 billion asset bank holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, operating 16 banking...

Wintrust Financial is a $71.1 billion asset bank holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, operating 16 banking subsidiaries with 209 locations serving the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana, and west Michigan. Community banking accounts for ~74.7% of net revenues, specialty finance (national insurance premium financing) contributes 18.4%, and wealth management ($46.5B AUM) adds 6.9%.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · FBK (FB Financial Corporation) · SFBS (ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.) · COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.)
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