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Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas; Thin upside margin: 3.9%.

Wintrust Financial is a $71.1-billion-asset Illinois financial holding company providing community banking (16 subsidiary banks, 209 locations), specialty finance (insurance premium finance, equipment leasing, AR financing), and wealth management ($46.5B AUA) primarily in the... Read more

$146.30+3.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#69 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield1.43%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout17.18%sustainable
Stop $140.12Target $151.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$174.67+19.4%12 analysts
$151.96our TP
$146.30price
$174.67mean
$190

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas; Thin upside margin: 3.9%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.1Qual5.7Grw5.5Mom4.7Sent5.7Ins3.9Peer5.1Tech7.6Risk7.65.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — Wintrust Financial Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas
Thin upside margin: 3.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$9.9B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn32.0%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta0.86
Dividend1.43%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas
    10-K Item 1A: 'Since our business is concentrated in the Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas, economic declines in the economy of this region could adversely affect our business.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $143.22Resistance $153.81

Price Targets

$140
$152
A.Upside+3.9%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.30, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas; Thin upside margin: 3.9%. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $151.96 (+3.9%), stop $140.12 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.96 (+3.9% upside). Target $151.96 (+3.9%), stop $140.12 (−4.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $140.12.

What are the risks of investing in WTFC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas; Thin upside margin: 3.9%.

Is WTFC overvalued or undervalued?

Wintrust Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about WTFC?

19 analysts cover WTFC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $175.

What does Wintrust Financial Corporation do?Wintrust Financial is a $71.1-billion-asset Illinois financial holding company providing community banking (16...

Wintrust Financial is a $71.1-billion-asset Illinois financial holding company providing community banking (16 subsidiary banks, 209 locations), specialty finance (insurance premium finance, equipment leasing, AR financing), and wealth management ($46.5B AUA) primarily in the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, and west Michigan. Community banking represents 74.7% of consolidated net revenues.

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