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Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Wait for pullback to $136.79. At $150.10 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $136.79 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Wintrust Financial is a financial holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, with $71.1 billion in total assets, operating sixteen community banks primarily in the Chicago metro, southern Wisconsin, and west Michigan areas. Revenue comes from community banking, specialty... Read more

$150.10+10.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#58 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $136.79(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $129.98Target $151.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$174.67+16.4%12 analysts
$151.96our TP
$150.10price
$174.67mean
$190

Wait for pullback to $136.79. At $150.10 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $136.79 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.0Qual5.4Grw5.5Mom6.7Sent7.6Ins3.8Peer5.3Tech4.6Risk5.56.0OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn32.0%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta0.85
Dividend1.42%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$110-26.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan
    10-K Item 1A: 'Since our business is concentrated in the Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan market areas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $136.29Resistance $153.75

Price Targets

$130
$137
$152
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WTFC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $136.79. At $150.10 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $136.79 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $151.96 (+1.2%), stop $129.98 (−15.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WTFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $151.96 (+10.1% upside). Target $151.96 (+1.2%), stop $129.98 (−15.5%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Stop-loss: $129.98.

What are the risks of investing in WTFC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Chicago metropolitan, southern Wisconsin and west Michigan; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is WTFC overvalued or undervalued?

Wintrust Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about WTFC?

19 analysts cover WTFC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $175.

What does Wintrust Financial Corporation do?Wintrust Financial is a financial holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, with $71.1 billion in total assets,...

Wintrust Financial is a financial holding company based in Rosemont, Illinois, with $71.1 billion in total assets, operating sixteen community banks primarily in the Chicago metro, southern Wisconsin, and west Michigan areas. Revenue comes from community banking, specialty finance (premium finance receivables), and wealth management services.

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