Value
7.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.59
- ▸Attractively valued
WTFC · Why this verdict
Why Wintrust Financial (WTFC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Wintrust has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 9.3%, with beats of 9.2%, 7.5%, 12.9%, and 7.8% respectively, demonstrating consistent above-consensus execution. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank earnings beats often reflect credit reserve releases rather than core business outperformance, which can reverse quickly if loan losses increase. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.57 indicate Wintrust is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth trajectory for a regional bank with strong 32% net margins. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 14x while the bank sustains earnings growth above 5% annually over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks are often cheap for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, and a valuation of 11.3x forward earnings may reflect justified discount to money-center peers. | ||
Net margins of 32% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflect a high-quality banking franchise with above-average operational efficiency and balance sheet health. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 28% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank net margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; any rate cuts could compress net interest margins and reduce the 32% margin advantage. | ||
Falling on-balance volume despite prices near a 52-week high and within 3% of the analyst target suggests institutional selling is absorbing buying pressure, limiting near-term upside. Momentum breakdown | Volume distribution reverses and on-balance volume turns upward within the next 3 months as the stock finds a new higher base. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume distribution at highs often reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than a directional change, and the underlying business strength can support continued price appreciation. | ||
Wintrust has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 9.3%, with beats of 9.2%, 7.5%, 12.9%, and 7.8% respectively, demonstrating consistent above-consensus execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 5%.
CounterRegional bank earnings beats often reflect credit reserve releases rather than core business outperformance, which can reverse quickly if loan losses increase.
A forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and a PEG ratio of 0.57 indicate Wintrust is attractively valued relative to its earnings growth trajectory for a regional bank with strong 32% net margins.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 14x while the bank sustains earnings growth above 5% annually over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional banks are often cheap for structural reasons including credit cycle sensitivity, and a valuation of 11.3x forward earnings may reflect justified discount to money-center peers.
Net margins of 32% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 reflect a high-quality banking franchise with above-average operational efficiency and balance sheet health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 28% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterBank net margins are highly sensitive to the interest rate environment; any rate cuts could compress net interest margins and reduce the 32% margin advantage.
Falling on-balance volume despite prices near a 52-week high and within 3% of the analyst target suggests institutional selling is absorbing buying pressure, limiting near-term upside.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Volume distribution reverses and on-balance volume turns upward within the next 3 months as the stock finds a new higher base.
CounterVolume distribution at highs often reflects profit-taking by early holders rather than a directional change, and the underlying business strength can support continued price appreciation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wintrust Financial is a well-run regional bank trading at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x with a perfect Piotroski score of 8/9, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong net interest margins of 32% — though limited upside to the analyst target and volume distribution in the stock suggest the near-term price appreciation may already be priced in.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,954,386 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 130.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-5.2%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.7; weakest: Technical at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.6, Peer rank at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Consecutive Earnings Beats
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 16x, exceeding the current 11.3x by more than 40%.
- P3Strong Margin Quality Profile
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25%, declining more than 7 percentage points from the current 32%.
- P4Volume Distribution At Target
Trip ifPrice drops below $149.50, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 4.6% below the current $156.70.