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Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Old National Bancorp is the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets ($72.2B at December 31, 2025), operating 346 banking centers primarily in the Midwest and Southeast U.S. including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and other states. Revenue... Read more

$23.92+1.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#24 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $22.74Target $24.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$27.91+16.7%11 analysts
$24.28our TP
$23.92price
$27.91mean
$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast United States
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$9.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth46.2%
Beta0.83
Dividend2.46%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

IV83%elevated
Max Pain$13-47.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicMidwest and Southeast United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of Old National's loans are to individuals and businesses in Old National's market areas in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Ellen A. Rudnick, Rebecca S. Skillman, and Stephen C. Van Arsdell will retire at 2026 annual meeting (May 13) per age-75 Board policy. Austin M. Ramirez also indicated retirement intent. No disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.75Resistance $24.42

Price Targets

$23
$24
A.Upside+1.5%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.6% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.92, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $24.28 (+1.5%), stop $22.74 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.28 (+1.6% upside). Target $24.28 (+1.5%), stop $22.74 (−5.2%), A.R:R 0.2:1. Stop-loss: $22.74.

What are the risks of investing in ONB?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast United States; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is ONB overvalued or undervalued?

Old National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ONB?

16 analysts cover ONB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Old National Bancorp do?Old National Bancorp is the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets ($72.2B at December 31, 2025),...

Old National Bancorp is the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets ($72.2B at December 31, 2025), operating 346 banking centers primarily in the Midwest and Southeast U.S. including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and other states. Revenue comes from net interest income on commercial, real estate, and consumer loans, plus fee income from wealth management, capital markets, and treasury services.

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