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Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Negative momentum.

Old National Bancorp is the sixth-largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets with $72.2 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025, operating 346 banking centers primarily in Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and other Midwest/Southeast states. It earns interest income on... Read more

$23.25+4.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#22 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 3.12%)Payout29.12%sustainable
Stop $22.40Target $24.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$27.91+20.0%11 analysts
$24.28our TP
$23.25price
$27.91mean
$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Old National Bancorp

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$9.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.2%
ROE10.1%
Rev Growth46.2%
Beta0.85
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV33%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicChicago-Naperville-Elgin33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI| 32.8 | | 202.4'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryOCC
    10-K Item 1: 'As a national bank, Old National Bank is subject to primary regulation, supervision, and examination by the OCC.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-19Item 5.02LOW
    Ellen Rudnick, Rebecca Skillman, Stephen Van Arsdell, and Austin Ramirez indicated intent to retire from the Board at the 2026 annual meeting (May 13, 2026), per mandatory age 75 retirement policy. No disagreements cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
1.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.09Resistance $24.72

Price Targets

$22
$24
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $24.28 (+4.4%), stop $22.40 (−3.8%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.28 (+4.9% upside). Target $24.28 (+4.4%), stop $22.40 (−3.8%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $22.40.

What are the risks of investing in ONB?

Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Negative momentum.

Is ONB overvalued or undervalued?

Old National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ONB?

15 analysts cover ONB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Old National Bancorp do?Old National Bancorp is the sixth-largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets with $72.2 billion in total assets as...

Old National Bancorp is the sixth-largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets with $72.2 billion in total assets as of December 31, 2025, operating 346 banking centers primarily in Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and other Midwest/Southeast states. It earns interest income on loans and fee income from commercial, consumer, wealth management, and capital markets services, with Chicago representing 32.8% of franchise deposits.

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