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WMBWilliams Companies, Inc. (The)Sell5.6·$71.83-2.93%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Williams Companies operates a high-margin natural gas midstream network with strong operating margins near 23%, but heavy customer concentration risk, a negative free cash flow quality flag, and only 4.4% upside to the analyst target make the current entry point unattractive despite solid infrastructure fundamentals.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Operating Margin InfrastructureStable
  • Customer Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • Earnings Miss TrajectoryImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Williams Companies, Inc. (The) (WMB) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 7 days (2026-08-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $71.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten G&P customers (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: NWP three largest customers (52.0%).

Williams Companies operates over 32,000 miles of natural gas pipelines across 24 states serving approximately 800 customers through gathering, processing, transmission, storage, and NGL fractionation. Revenue flows from fee-based gathering and processing (93% of NGL volumes... Read more

$71.83+4.6% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#29 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.21%
IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 4.50%)Payout88.82%at-risk
Stop $69.90Target $75.44(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$83.82+16.7%22 analysts
$75.44our TP
$71.83price
$83.82mean
$67
$99

Sell if holding. At $71.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten G&P customers (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: NWP three largest customers (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten G&P customers (55.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: NWP three largest customers (52.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.5
P/E (Fwd)28.8
Mkt Cap$90.5B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn23.1%
ROE19.7%
Rev Growth9.0%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.84%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV44%normal
Max Pain$45-37.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop ten G&P customers55%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top ten customers accounted for approximately 55 percent of gathering and processing fee revenues and NGL margins from noncash commodity-based agreements.'
  • HIGHCustomerNWP three largest customers52%
    10-K Item 1: 'NWP's three largest customers in 2025 accounted for approximately 52 percent of NWP total operating revenues.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop ten interstate pipeline customers44%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top ten customers of the interstate natural gas pipelines in 2025 accounted for approximately 44 percent of Williams' regulated interstate natural gas transportation and storage revenues.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerthree largest NGL marketing customers42%
    10-K Item 1: 'the three largest NGL marketing customers accounted for approximately 42 percent of Williams' NGL marketing sales'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle or a limited number of suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'Some of Williams', Transco's, and NWP's businesses are exposed to supplier concentration risks arising from dependence on a single or a limited number of suppliers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02LOW
    At the 2026 Annual Meeting on April 28, 2026, stockholders approved an amendment to the 2007 Incentive Plan increasing authorized shares from 50,000,000 to 85,000,000, removing the plan expiration date, and making other changes. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Alan S. Armstrong resigned from the Board effective March 23, 2026 to serve as U.S. Senator for Oklahoma. Stephen W. Bergstrom elected Chairman; Board reduced from 12 to 11 directors. Compensation committee modified Armstrong's outstanding equity awards.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.4
Growth Rank
3.7
Quality Rank
6.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Surprise Avg
3.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 daysYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $72.06Resistance $78.48

Price Targets

$70
$75
A.Upside+4.6%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WMB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $71.83, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top ten G&P customers (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: NWP three largest customers (52.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $69.90. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WMB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $75.44 (+4.6% upside). Prior stop was $69.90. Stop-loss: $69.90.

What are the risks of investing in WMB?

Concentration risk — Customer: top ten G&P customers (55.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: NWP three largest customers (52.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.6%.

Is WMB overvalued or undervalued?

Williams Companies, Inc. (The) trades at a P/E of 32.5 (forward 28.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WMB?

29 analysts cover WMB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $84.

What does Williams Companies, Inc. (The) do?Williams Companies operates over 32,000 miles of natural gas pipelines across 24 states serving approximately 800...

Williams Companies operates over 32,000 miles of natural gas pipelines across 24 states serving approximately 800 customers through gathering, processing, transmission, storage, and NGL fractionation. Revenue flows from fee-based gathering and processing (93% of NGL volumes under fee contracts in 2025), FERC-regulated interstate pipeline transportation via Transco and NWP subsidiaries, and gas and NGL marketing services.

Related stocks: VG (Venture Global, Inc.) · AM (Antero Midstream Corporation) · LNG (Cheniere Energy, Inc.) · ET (Energy Transfer LP) · WES (Western Midstream Partners, LP)
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