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Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa under construction, CP2 29 mtpa in development) using a modular build-many design with 20-year take-or-pay SPAs totaling ~47 mtpa across 24 customers. Revenue... Read more

$14.29+2.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#11 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-29.55%
IncomeYield0.52%Payout7.15%sustainable
Stop $13.29Target $14.65(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$15.24+6.6%19 analysts
$14.65our TP
$14.29price
$15.24mean
$8
$22

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.6Qual6.4Grw8.2Mom6.7Sent6.6Ins3.0Peer6.7Tech2.6Risk5.46.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Venture Global, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$36.7B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn19.6%
ROE27.5%
Rev Growth191.7%
Beta—
Dividend0.52%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV87%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop three customers50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 50.0% of our revenue for the period from individual external customers was concentrated across three customers'
  • LOWCustomersingle largest customer23%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we had one customer which represented approximately 23% of our revenue for that same period'
  • HIGHGeographicLouisiana LNG projects
    10-K Item 1: 'We are operating, constructing, and developing multiple LNG export projects in Louisiana'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
4.7
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.15Resistance $14.95

Price Targets

$13
$15
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.65 (+2.5%), stop $13.29 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.65 (+2.5% upside). Target $14.65 (+2.5%), stop $13.29 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $13.29.

What are the risks of investing in VG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Louisiana LNG projects; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.9): -1.5.

Is VG overvalued or undervalued?

Venture Global, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about VG?

26 analysts cover VG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $15.

What does Venture Global, Inc. do?Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa...

Venture Global produces and exports LNG from Louisiana facilities (Calcasieu operating 11.2 mtpa, Plaquemines 28 mtpa under construction, CP2 29 mtpa in development) using a modular build-many design with 20-year take-or-pay SPAs totaling ~47 mtpa across 24 customers. Revenue comes from commissioning cargo sales (spot/forward) and contracted post-COD SPAs with fixed liquefaction fees plus Henry Hub-linked commodity fees.

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