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Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined products transportation, and fuel distribution via Sunoco LP across 32 countries. Cash flows derive from distributions from subsidiaries based on fees for... Read more

$20.38+2.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#20 of 42 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.45%
IncomeYield6.55%(5y avg 7.36%)Payout110.42%at-risk
Stop $19.47Target $20.99(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$23.32+14.4%22 analysts
$20.99our TP
$20.38price
$23.32mean
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Energy Transfer LP

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Shell
Target reached (2.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$70.2B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth32.1%
Beta0.57
Dividend6.55%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerShell
    10-K Item 1: 'Lake Charles LNG derives all of its revenue from a series of long-term contracts with a wholly owned subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc ("Shell").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.4
Roa
3.0
Fcf Quality
3.2
Roe
4.1
Operating Margin
4.3
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.5
Moat
5.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 39% FCF/NINo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.36Resistance $20.70

Price Targets

$19
$21
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $20.38: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.47. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.99 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $19.47. Stop-loss: $19.47.

What are the risks of investing in ET?

Concentration risk — Customer: Shell; Target reached (2.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is ET overvalued or undervalued?

Energy Transfer LP trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ET?

30 analysts cover ET with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Energy Transfer LP do?Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined...

Energy Transfer LP is a large U.S. midstream MLP operating natural gas pipelines (~32,000 miles), NGL/crude/refined products transportation, and fuel distribution via Sunoco LP across 32 countries. Cash flows derive from distributions from subsidiaries based on fees for transportation, terminalling, storage, and motor fuel distribution.

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