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Energy Transfer LP (ET) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Energy Transfer LP is a diversified midstream energy partnership operating approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate natural gas pipelines with approximately 24 Bcf/d of capacity in Texas and Oklahoma, plus interstate pipelines, crude oil, NGL and refined products transportation,... Read more

$19.87+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#21 of 41 Oil & Gas Midstream
Stop $19.20Target $20.04(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$22.26+12.0%21 analysts
$20.04our TP
$19.87price
$22.26mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$68.0B
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn5.2%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth29.6%
Beta0.62
Dividend6.76%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.6
Roa
2.9
Operating Margin
3.7
Roe
4.0
Fcf Quality
4.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.0
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 50% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.34Resistance $19.97

Price Targets

$19
$20
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ET stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.87: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.20. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ET stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.04 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $19.20. Stop-loss: $19.20.

What are the risks of investing in ET?

Target reached (0.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is ET overvalued or undervalued?

Energy Transfer LP trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ET?

30 analysts cover ET with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Energy Transfer LP do?Energy Transfer LP is a diversified midstream energy partnership operating approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate...

Energy Transfer LP is a diversified midstream energy partnership operating approximately 12,200 miles of intrastate natural gas pipelines with approximately 24 Bcf/d of capacity in Texas and Oklahoma, plus interstate pipelines, crude oil, NGL and refined products transportation, terminalling, and investments in Sunoco LP and USAC. Cash flows depend on distributions from subsidiaries.

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