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WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Sell3.5·$28.25-0.42%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Warner Bros. Discovery carries a quality score of only 2.9 — below the 4.0 investable floor — with earnings estimates cut by 12.7% over 30 days, consecutive earnings misses by large margins, and declining revenue, presenting a weak fundamental case despite positive free cash flow margins.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor Structural WeaknessStable
  • Earnings Deterioration Estimate CutsStable
  • Revenue Decline No GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - (WBD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.25: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to refer to both Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and collectively to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and one or more of its consolidated... Read more

$28.25-8.2% A.UpsideScore 3.5/10#33 of 34 Entertainment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield22.83%
Stop $27.61Target $32.49(default +15%)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$29.82+5.6%11 analysts
$32.49our TP
$28.25price
$29.82mean
$26
$32

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.25: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-8.2% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)403.6
Mkt Cap$70.8B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn-8.8%
ROE-8.8%
Rev Growth-11.2%
Beta1.57
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C4.02bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$31+9.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.0
Value Rank
5.2

Unprofitable operations — net margin -8.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Operating Margin
2.0
Current Ratio
3.1
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
5.6
Fcf Quality
6.0
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 45%, FCF yield 22.8%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $26.60Resistance $28.99

Price Targets

$28
$32
A.Upside-8.2%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $28.25: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 4.02; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $27.61. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

What is the WBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.49 (-8.2% upside). Prior stop was $27.61. Stop-loss: $27.61.

What are the risks of investing in WBD?

Target reached (-8.2% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is WBD overvalued or undervalued?

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 403.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WBD?

25 analysts cover WBD with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - do?For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual...

For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to refer to both Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and collectively to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires.

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