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WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Sell4.1·$25.59-0.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Warner Bros. Discovery carries a quality score of only 2.9 — below the 4.0 investable floor — with earnings estimates cut by 12.7% over 30 days, consecutive earnings misses by large margins, and declining revenue, presenting a weak fundamental case despite positive free cash flow margins.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor Structural WeaknessStable
  • Earnings Deterioration Estimate CutsStable
  • Revenue Decline No GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - (WBD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.59: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to refer to both Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and collectively to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and one or more of its consolidated... Read more

$25.59+1.8% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#34 of 35 Entertainment
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield28.58%
Stop $24.49Target $26.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$29.92+16.9%12 analysts
$26.03our TP
$25.59price
$29.92mean
$31

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.59: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/7 gates (clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-27
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202610d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (1.8% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)185.3
Mkt Cap$64.6B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn-4.7%
ROE-5.0%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta1.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV58%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    . Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 29, 2026, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.0
Macd
1.6
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.7%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.9
Current Ratio
2.9
Moat
3.2
Operating Margin
3.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Gross Margin
5.1
Fcf Quality
6.0
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 50%, FCF yield 28.6%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
5.1
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $25.25Resistance $27.64

Price Targets

$24
$26
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WBD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.59: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.49. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WBD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.03 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $24.49. Stop-loss: $24.49.

What are the risks of investing in WBD?

Target reached (1.8% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is WBD overvalued or undervalued?

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 185.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WBD?

25 analysts cover WBD with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - do?For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual...

For convenience, the terms "Warner Bros. Discovery", "WBD", the "Company," "we," "us" or "our" are used in this Annual Report on Form 10-K to refer to both Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and collectively to Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and one or more of its consolidated subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires.

Related stocks: NWSA (News Corporation) · NWS (News Corporation) · WMG (Warner Music Group Corp.) · TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.) · NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)
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