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Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. At $125.15, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target (81.0%).

Roku is the leading TV streaming platform in the US, Canada, and Mexico by hours streamed, with Devices (streaming players, Roku-made TVs, audio) and Platform (digital advertising, subscriptions, content distribution) segments. With 145.6B streaming hours and 90M+ Streaming... Read more

$125.15+4.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.69%
Stop $115.46Target $130.27(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$144.74+15.7%27 analysts
$130.27our TP
$125.15price
$144.74mean
$95
$170

Sell if holding. At $125.15, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target (81.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Roku, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target (81.0%)
Thin upside margin: 4.9%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)91.9
P/E (Fwd)36.8
Mkt Cap$18.3B
EV/EBITDA42.6
Profit Mgn4.1%
ROE7.8%
Rev Growth22.4%
Beta2.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts38

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.17bearish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerAmazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target81%
    10-K Item 1: 'Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target collectively accounted for 81% of our Devices revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
9.0
Overbought (RSI 70)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $110.10Resistance $131.39

Price Targets

$115
$130
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROKU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $125.15, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target (81.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $115.46. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROKU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $130.27 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $115.46. Stop-loss: $115.46.

What are the risks of investing in ROKU?

Concentration risk — Customer: Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, and Target (81.0%); Thin upside margin: 4.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is ROKU overvalued or undervalued?

Roku, Inc. trades at a P/E of 91.9 (forward 36.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ROKU?

38 analysts cover ROKU with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $145.

What does Roku, Inc. do?Roku is the leading TV streaming platform in the US, Canada, and Mexico by hours streamed, with Devices (streaming...

Roku is the leading TV streaming platform in the US, Canada, and Mexico by hours streamed, with Devices (streaming players, Roku-made TVs, audio) and Platform (digital advertising, subscriptions, content distribution) segments. With 145.6B streaming hours and 90M+ Streaming Households globally in 2025, revenue comes from advertising, device sales, and subscription fees.

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