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VTMXCorporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta,Buy Wait5.9·$33.66-0.09%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta is a Mexican industrial real estate developer with a wide economic moat designation, best-in-class operating margins, and a 40% margin of safety, but the stock has already surpassed its analyst target with -11.6% negative upside, consecutive earnings misses in 2 of 4 quarters, and free cash flow conversion at only 22% of net income — signaling accounting earnings are not translating to cash.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Industrial ReitImproving
  • Negative Analyst Target AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • Earnings Miss Pattern Cash Flow GapImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, (VTMX) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Development

Wait for pullback to $31.98. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.66. Engine's entry $31.98 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates industrial buildings and distribution facilities in Mexico. It offers rental income from operating leases, including reimbursable building services and energy... Read more

$33.66-6.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 4 Real Estate - Development
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.15%
IncomeYield2.46%Payout18.11%
Entry $31.98(5% below current)Stop $30.46Target $34.51(resistance)A.R:R -1.4:1
Analyst target$36.90+9.6%4 analysts
$34.51our TP
$33.66price
$36.90mean
$30
$43

Wait for pullback to $31.98. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.66. Engine's entry $31.98 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Margin of safety: 51%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA15.0
Profit Mgn132.2%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth16.7%
Beta
Dividend2.46%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.33%=MODERATEMomentum 5.2>=4.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $32.92Resistance $35.21

Price Targets

$30
$32
$35
A.Upside-6.8%
A.R:R-1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.3%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VTMX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $31.98. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $33.66. Engine's entry $31.98 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.8% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $34.51 (+2.5%), stop $30.46 (−10.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VTMX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.51 (-6.8% upside). Target $34.51 (+2.5%), stop $30.46 (−10.5%), A.R:R -1.4:1. Stop-loss: $30.46.

What are the risks of investing in VTMX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is VTMX overvalued or undervalued?

Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VTMX?

19 analysts cover VTMX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta, do?Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates...

Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, develops, manages, operates industrial buildings and distribution facilities in Mexico. It offers rental income from operating leases, including reimbursable building services and energy income. The company serves corporations in diverse industries, such as food and beverage, automotive, aerospace, medical, logistics, and plastics. Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Related stocks: FOR (Forestar Group Inc) · HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) · CCS (Century Communities, Inc.) · IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaci) · RITM (Rithm Capital Corp.)
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