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OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, IncSell6.4·$48.49
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Omega Healthcare Investors is a healthcare REIT with best-in-class margins of 51%, a strong earnings beat streak of 3 of 4 quarters, and a Rule of 40 score of 56, but the stock is priced near its analyst target with only 1.3% remaining upside and momentum has weakened below the minimum threshold.

Thesis pillars

  • Snf Concentration Risk↑Improving
  • Best In Class Margins Quality→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 9, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc (OHI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: SNFs (54.6%).

Omega Healthcare Investors is a healthcare REIT owning 1,027 operating SNFs, assisted living facilities, and other long-term care properties in 42 states and the U.K., leased under triple-net agreements to 89 operators. SNFs drive 54.6% of revenues; average annualized lease... Read more

$48.49-4.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 15 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.29%
IncomeYield5.72%(5y avg 7.54%)Payout95.71%
Stop $46.33Analyst target $46.23(reached)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst consensus$51.37+5.9%19 analysts with price targets
$48.49price
$51.37mean
$45
$61

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: SNFs (54.6%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.70, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc

About Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc

Omega Healthcare Investors held 1,027 operating healthcare facilities across 42 states, the United Kingdom, and Bailiwick of Jersey at year-end 2025, with gross real estate investments totaling $11.9 billion. Skilled nursing facilities and transitional care properties generated 54.6% of annual revenues from 577 facilities; senior housing (ALFs, ILFs, and CCRCs) contributed 30.4% from 359 facilities. Triple-net operating leases — 86% of which have terms extending beyond 2030 — carried an average annualized yield of 10.4%, with 89 third-party operators responsible for all facility operations.

Omega earns revenue primarily through triple-net leases in which operators pay one monthly rent covering all properties under a master lease agreement, bearing facility-level operating costs, capital maintenance, and insurance. Lease terms run 5 to 15 years with annual escalators; real estate assets and mortgage loans on 1,027 facilities generated 93.5% of 2025 revenues, with the balance from other real estate loans, unconsolidated entities, and non-real estate loans. Mortgage loans on 91 SNF and senior housing facilities provide supplemental income at an average 10.2% annualized yield. During the fourth quarter of 2025, Omega adopted RIDEA structures for four newly acquired senior housing facilities managed by two third-party managers, providing direct exposure to operating cash flows. Operators are subject to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement as the primary revenue source for SNF operators, and regulatory changes to these programs — including the OBBBA's estimated $920 billion in Medicaid cuts over the next decade enacted in July 2025 — may adversely impact operators' ability to service lease obligations to Omega.

Show full overview

The concentrated SNF-tenant exposure means Omega's cash flow is directly linked to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement policy and operator financial health. The OBBBA froze nursing home provider taxes and introduced reductions to Medicaid that could reduce reimbursement levels states pass through to SNF operators, exposing the company to potential rent coverage deterioration from its largest tenant segment. In May 2026, the company disclosed planned CEO and CFO retirements via Form 8-K: C. Taylor Pickett will step down October 1, 2026, succeeded by President Matthew P. Gourmand; CFO Robert O. Stephenson departs August 1, 2026, with SVP Neal A. Ballew succeeding him. Both transitions follow long-term succession planning with named successors.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

From Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 27, 2026

Recent Developments — Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc

Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 3, 202790d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: SNFs (54.6%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)24.2
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA16.4
Profit Mgn68.1%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta0.55
Dividend5.72%
Analysts with ratings23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$38-21.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertySNFs55%
    10-K Item 1: 'SNFs/Transitional care (3)| 577| ​| $| 5,732,460| 48.0| %| $| 170,985| ​| 54.6| %'
  • MEDIUMPropertySenior housing30%
    10-K Item 1: 'Senior housing (4)| 359| ​| ​| 3,900,922| 32.7| %| ​| 95,060| ​| 30.4| %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO C. Taylor Pickett to retire October 1, 2026; succeeded by President Matthew P. Gourmand. CFO Robert O. Stephenson to retire August 1, 2026; succeeded by SVP/Chief Accounting Officer Neal A. Ballew. Both planned retirements with named successors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.0

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
1.9
Ev Ebitda
2.1
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
6.3
P/OCF: 17.4x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.85Resistance $48.61

Price Targets

A.Upside-4.7%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-03 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OHI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: SNFs (54.6%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $46.33. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OHI stock price target?

Analyst target $46.23 reached (−4.7% from $48.49); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $46.33. Stop-loss: $46.33.

What are the risks of investing in OHI?

Concentration risk — Property Type: SNFs (54.6%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is OHI overvalued or undervalued?

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OHI?

23 analysts rate OHI, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 19 analysts publish price targets averaging $51.

What does Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc do?Omega Healthcare Investors is a healthcare REIT owning 1,027 operating SNFs, assisted living facilities, and other...

Omega Healthcare Investors is a healthcare REIT owning 1,027 operating SNFs, assisted living facilities, and other long-term care properties in 42 states and the U.K., leased under triple-net agreements to 89 operators. SNFs drive 54.6% of revenues; average annualized lease yield is 10.4%; approximately 86% of leases extend beyond 2030.

Related stocks: LTC (LTC Properties, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.)
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