Strong price-to-operating-cash-flow momentum and a near-perfect financial health score sit alongside a stock trading above its price target with zero remaining upside, two recent earnings misses, and extreme options market hedging — the setup is unattractive for new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Financial Health Score↓Deteriorating
- Upside Exhaustion Above Target↓Deteriorating
- Geographic Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $70.45: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Near 52-week high (4.2% away).
St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real estate primarily in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties where approximately 87% of its real estate is located. Revenue comes from homesite sales to homebuilders, hotel... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $70.45: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 111d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About St. Joe Company (The)
About St. Joe Company (The)
St. Joe's 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated within approximately 15 miles of the Gulf of America in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties, anchor a real estate development and asset management platform. The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles development of over 170,000 residential dwelling units and more than 22 million square feet of commercial space, with approximately 87% of the company's real estate in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported approximately $1,004.9 million in real estate investments on its books.
The company generates revenue through three segments: residential (homesite sales primarily to homebuilders, with 18 active builders in its communities), hospitality (the Watersound Club, branded hotels, gulf-front vacation rentals, marinas, and food and beverage operations), and commercial (multi-family, senior living, self-storage, medical, office, retail, and industrial properties, plus timber sales). The Latitude Margaritaville Watersound joint venture — a 3,700-home active adult development — contributed over 20% of pre-tax income in each of fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025; the filing identifies this as a concentration that could disproportionately impact overall financial performance. The company relies on a concentrated number of homebuilders for a significant portion of residential homesite sales, and elevated interest rates in recent years have affected buyer affordability.
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St. Joe's geographic footprint in Northwest Florida exposes the company to hurricane risk: the filing notes insurance for hurricanes has limitations per named storm and is subject to deductibles, and that homeowner insurance companies in Florida have reacted to prior storms by increasing premiums, reducing limits, restricting coverage, and in some instances ceasing operations in the state. The state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation provides a backstop, but a catastrophic hurricane or series of storms may place extreme stress on state finances and suppress homebuyer demand in the company's primary markets.
See also: Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
From St. Joe Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — St. Joe Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS St. Joe Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JOE SWOT Analysis: Financial Resilience Amidst Market Challenges Revealed in 10-Q Filing - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The St. Joe Co Reports Q3 2026 Earnings: $0.65 EPS and $156.2 Mi - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS St. Joe: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - KVUE — KVUE Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS St. Joe: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - KTVB — KTVB Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorthwest Florida10-K Item 1A: 'our business is especially sensitive to economic conditions in Northwest Florida, where our developments and assets are located'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'
- MEDIUMCustomerhomebuilders10-K Item 1A: 'We also rely on a concentrated number of homebuilders for a significant portion of our residential homesite sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $70.45: Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $66.09. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Default target: $81.02 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $66.09. Stop-loss: $66.09.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Northwest Florida; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.4 (forward 640.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts rate JOE, with a consensus score of 2.3/5.
What does St. Joe Company (The) do?St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real...
St. Joe Company owns 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, developing residential, hospitality, and commercial real estate primarily in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties where approximately 87% of its real estate is located. Revenue comes from homesite sales to homebuilders, hotel and club operations, commercial leasing, and timber sales, with 906 full-time employees. The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles the company to develop over 170,000 residential units and more than 22 million square feet of commercial space.