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St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf,... Read more

$64.33+10.5% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10Peer score 5.1/10 · 149 Real Estate (sector)
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.09%
IncomeYield0.99%(5y avg 0.87%)Payout31.09%
Stop $59.83Target $71.10(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.8Qual6.9Grw1.9Mom2.7Sent5.0Ins3.0Peer5.1Tech7.1Risk6.34.4OVERALL

Recent Developments — St. Joe Company (The)

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.3
P/E (Fwd)584.8
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA21.2
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth5.1%
Beta1.31
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicFlorida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties87%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 87% of our real estate is located in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties.'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV
    10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.2
Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
5.4
P Ocf
6.1
P/OCF: 18.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.91Resistance $72.55

Price Targets

$60
$71
A.Upside+10.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JOE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $64.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $59.83. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.

What is the JOE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $71.10 (+10.5% upside). Prior stop was $59.83. Stop-loss: $59.83.

What are the risks of investing in JOE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is JOE overvalued or undervalued?

St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.3 (forward 584.8). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JOE?

8 analysts cover JOE with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does St. Joe Company (The) do?St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in...

St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf, marinas), and commercial property development and leasing. Approximately 87% of real estate is in those three counties, with ~90% within 15 miles of the Gulf of America.

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