St. Joe Company (The) (JOE) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $65.56: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%).
St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf,... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $65.56: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About St. Joe Company (The)
About St. Joe Company (The)
St. Joe's 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated within approximately 15 miles of the Gulf of America in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties, anchor a real estate development and asset management platform. The Bay-Walton Sector Plan entitles development of over 170,000 residential dwelling units and more than 22 million square feet of commercial space, with approximately 87% of the company's real estate in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported approximately $1,004.9 million in real estate investments on its books.
The company generates revenue through three segments: residential (homesite sales primarily to homebuilders, with 18 active builders in its communities), hospitality (the Watersound Club, branded hotels, gulf-front vacation rentals, marinas, and food and beverage operations), and commercial (multi-family, senior living, self-storage, medical, office, retail, and industrial properties, plus timber sales). The Latitude Margaritaville Watersound joint venture — a 3,700-home active adult development — contributed over 20% of pre-tax income in each of fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025; the filing identifies this as a concentration that could disproportionately impact overall financial performance. The company relies on a concentrated number of homebuilders for a significant portion of residential homesite sales, and elevated interest rates in recent years have affected buyer affordability.
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St. Joe's geographic footprint in Northwest Florida exposes the company to hurricane risk: the filing notes insurance for hurricanes has limitations per named storm and is subject to deductibles, and that homeowner insurance companies in Florida have reacted to prior storms by increasing premiums, reducing limits, restricting coverage, and in some instances ceasing operations in the state. The state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corporation provides a backstop, but a catastrophic hurricane or series of storms may place extreme stress on state finances and suppress homebuyer demand in the company's primary markets.
See also: Real Estate · Real Estate - Diversified
From St. Joe Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — St. Joe Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS St. Joe’s extends hot streak with its first Liberty Bell Classic championship since 2016 - Inquirer.com — Inquirer.com neutral
- NEWS “American Pie” premieres at St. Joe’s in 1971 - sjuhawknews.com — sjuhawknews.com neutral
- NEWS St. Joe (NYSE:JOE) Share Price Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average - Time to Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS St. Joe’s vs. Penn: Liberty Bell Classic Championship at Citizens Bank Park - Inquirer.com — Inquirer.com neutral
- NEWS St Joe : to Announce First Quarter 2026 Results and Hold Earnings Call for the First Quarter - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T08:41:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicFlorida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties87%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 87% of our real estate is located in Florida's Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties.'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyLatitude Margaritaville Watersound JV10-K Item 1A: 'our equity in income from the unconsolidated Latitude Margaritaville Watersound JV accounted for over 20% of our pre-tax income'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $65.56: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $62.98. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $64.82 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $62.98. Stop-loss: $62.98.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties (87.0%); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.7/10.
St. Joe Company (The) trades at a P/E of 33.6 (forward 590.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover JOE with a consensus score of 2.3/5.
What does St. Joe Company (The) do?St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in...
St. Joe is a Florida-based real estate developer and operator with 165,000 acres in Northwest Florida, concentrated in Bay, Gulf, and Walton counties. Revenue is earned through residential homesite sales to homebuilders, hospitality operations (hotels, Watersound Club golf, marinas), and commercial property development and leasing. Approximately 87% of real estate is in those three counties, with ~90% within 15 miles of the Gulf of America.