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TXOTXO Partners, L.P.Sell5.8·$12.37-0.16%
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TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.37: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West... Read more

$12.37+37.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#21 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-17.22%
IncomeYield11.80%Payout562.50%at-risk
Stop $11.88Target $17.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst target$20.00+61.7%3 analysts
$17.00our TP
$12.37price
$20.00mean
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.37: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$683M
EV/EBITDA16.3
Profit Mgn-28.5%
ROE-16.5%
Rev Growth-66.5%
Beta0.02
Dividend11.80%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
1.1
Value Rank
4.7

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
1.7
Moat
4.0
Gross Margin
4.9
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -34% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 5.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.25Resistance $13.97

Price Targets

$12
$17
A.Upside+37.4%
A.R:R5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.37: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 5.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.88. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.00 (+37.4% upside). Prior stop was $11.88. Stop-loss: $11.88.

What are the risks of investing in TXO?

Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is TXO overvalued or undervalued?

TXO Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXO?

8 analysts cover TXO with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $20.

What does TXO Partners, L.P. do?TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and...

TXO Partners, L.P., an oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, optimization, and exploitation of conventional oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquid reserves in North America. Its acreage positions are concentrated in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico; the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado; and the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota. TXO Partners, L.P. was formerly known as TXO Energy Partners, L.P. and changed its name to TXO Partners, L.P. in May 2023. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

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