TXNM Energy is a regulated electric utility that has missed earnings in all four of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 27%, has estimates trending down 34% over 30 days, and is in an RSI-14 capitulation-risk downtrend, while its free cash flow is negative 434% of net income.
Thesis pillars
- Catastrophic Fcf Quality→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Estimate Cuts→Stable
- Capitulation Risk Extreme Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away).
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation;... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TXNM Energy Q2 Adj. EPS $0.58 Beats $0.54 Estimate, Sales $548.554M Miss $560.690M Estimate — benzinga Jul 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS TXNM Energy, Blackstone Infrastructure Extend Merger Completion Date To May 31, 2027, To Obtain Regulatory Approvals — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Top 3 Utilities Stocks Which Could Blast Off In Q2 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Elizabeth Warren Says Private Equity Wants To Profit From AI—And Stick Consumers With The Bill — benzinga Jun 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 1, 2026 — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-16T21:27:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest REPs10-K Item 1: 'the two largest REPs accounted for 24% and 19% of TNMP's operating revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicAlbuquerque metropolitan area41%10-K Item 1: 'The Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, and Santa Fe metropolitan areas accounted for 41.3%, 8.5%, 5.7% and 5.9% of PNM's 2025 revenues'
- MEDIUMregulatoryNMPRC10-K Item 1A: 'The rates PNM charges its customers are regulated by the NMPRC and FERC'
- MEDIUMregulatoryPUCT10-K Item 1A: 'TNMP is regulated by the PUCT'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $57.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $56.84. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $66.01 (-8.0% upside). Prior stop was $56.84. Stop-loss: $56.84.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0.
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.4 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.
What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately...
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation; TNMP provides transmission and distribution only under PUCT jurisdiction. A pending merger with Blackstone Infrastructure at $61.25 per share received FERC and PUCT approval in early 2026, with NMPRC proceedings ongoing.