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PPL Corporation (PPL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. At $34.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: coal generation; Concentration risk — Regulatory: KPSC.

PPL Corporation is a regulated utility holding company delivering electricity to customers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Virginia, and Rhode Island, and natural gas in Kentucky and Rhode Island, through three reportable segments: Kentucky Regulated (LG&E and KU), Pennsylvania... Read more

$34.93+7.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#21 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-6.15%
IncomeYield3.26%(5y avg 3.84%)Payout67.64%
Stop $33.70Target $37.38(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$41.53+18.9%15 analysts
$37.38our TP
$34.93price
$41.53mean
$48

Sell if holding. At $34.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: coal generation; Concentration risk — Regulatory: KPSC. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — PPL Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: coal generation
Concentration risk — Regulatory: KPSC
Thin upside margin: 7.0%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)16.5
Mkt Cap$26.3B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn13.1%
ROE8.3%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.62
Dividend3.26%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV34%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditycoal generation
    10-K Item 1: 'Coal| 10,331 | | | 14,738 ... Total (a)| 12,172 | | | 19,754'
  • HIGHregulatoryKPSC
    10-K Item 1: 'LG&E is subject to regulation as a public utility by the KPSC, and certain of its transmission activities are subject to the jurisdiction of the FERC'
  • HIGHregulatoryPAPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'PPL Electric is subject to regulation as a public utility by the PAPUC, and certain of its transmission activities are subject to the jurisdiction of the FERC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.9
Capitulation risk (RSI 15, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
15 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $34.74Resistance $39.48

Price Targets

$34
$37
A.Upside+7.0%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PPL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $34.93, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Commodity: coal generation; Concentration risk — Regulatory: KPSC. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $33.70. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PPL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.38 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $33.70. Stop-loss: $33.70.

What are the risks of investing in PPL?

Concentration risk — Commodity: coal generation; Concentration risk — Regulatory: KPSC; Thin upside margin: 7.0%.

Is PPL overvalued or undervalued?

PPL Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 16.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PPL?

21 analysts cover PPL with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $42.

What does PPL Corporation do?PPL Corporation is a regulated utility holding company delivering electricity to customers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky,...

PPL Corporation is a regulated utility holding company delivering electricity to customers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Virginia, and Rhode Island, and natural gas in Kentucky and Rhode Island, through three reportable segments: Kentucky Regulated (LG&E and KU), Pennsylvania Regulated (PPL Electric), and Rhode Island Regulated (RIE). Combined operating revenues were approximately $9.1 billion across all segments in 2025.

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