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HEHawaiian Electric Industries, ISell5.7·$9.10
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Hawaiian Electric Industries trades with an unfavorable 0.41-to-1 reward-to-risk and below-minimum quality metrics, compounded by meaningful geographic and regulatory concentration in a single island state and a recent significant earnings miss — the combination of these factors points to a setup that warrants caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Minimum Floor→Stable
  • Unfavorable Price Risk Reward↑Improving
  • Geographic Regulatory Concentration→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.10: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion... Read more

$9.10-8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 41 Utilities - Regulated Electric
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield20.62%
Stop $8.73Target $11.37(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$9.81+7.8%4 analysts
$11.37our TP
$9.10price
$9.81mean
$7
$12

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.10: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 9, MACD bearish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — Hawaiian Electric Industries, I

Generated 2026-09-26T16:02:03Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 13, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii
Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC
Target reached (-8.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.6B
EV/EBITDA8.0
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth25.9%
Beta0.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV43%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicHawaii
    10-K Item 1A: 'The business of the Utilities is concentrated on the individual islands they serve in the State of Hawaii.'
  • HIGHregulatoryPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'HEI is subject to an agreement entered into with the PUC (the PUC Agreement) which, among other things, requires PUC approval of any change in control of HEI.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02HIGH
    EVP & CFO Scott T. DeGhetto's term as principal financial officer ended April 1, 2026. No successor named. Entered 1-year consulting agreement via Emberstone, LLC at $200,000/month plus $1,350,000 special projects fee.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Macd
2.5
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 9, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/2M

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
1.1
Operating Margin
1.8
Piotroski F
3.3
Net Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
3.9
Roe
4.5
Moat
5.4
Fcf Quality
9.8
Excellent cash conversion: 145% FCF/NINo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
9 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.00Resistance $11.60

Price Targets

$9
$11
A.Upside-8.3%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-13 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $9.10: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 9, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $8.73. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.37 (-8.3% upside). Prior stop was $8.73. Stop-loss: $8.73.

What are the risks of investing in HE?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Hawaii; Concentration risk — Regulatory: PUC; Target reached (-8.3% upside).

Is HE overvalued or undervalued?

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HE?

10 analysts cover HE with a consensus score of 1.9/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Hawaiian Electric Industries, I do?Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii...

Hawaiian Electric Industries is a holding company whose regulated utility subsidiaries — Hawaiian Electric, Hawaii Electric Light, and Maui Electric — serve approximately 95% of Hawaii's population across five island grids. Utility electric sales revenues totaled $3.02 billion in 2025, earned through PUC-authorized mechanisms including sales decoupling and annual revenue adjustments.

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