TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TXNM stock price target?

Take-profit $57.94 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $58.39.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TXNM?

Target reached (-10.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0); Target reached (-10.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Q: Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued?

TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.8 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TXNM?

12 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

Breakout setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.86: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 27.45; Below-average business quality.

TXNM Energy is a New Mexico holding company with two regulated electric utilities—PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas—serving approximately 842,000 customers. Revenue is generated from regulated electricity rates overseen by the NMPRC and PUCT. A pending merger with Blackstone... Read more

$58.86-1.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#29 of 38 Utilities - Regulated Electric

Stop $58.39Target $57.94(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1

Analyst target$60.79+3.3%6 analysts

$57.94our TP

$58.86price

$60.79mean

$58

$61

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-10.1% upside)

Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.8

P/E (Fwd)18.1

Mkt Cap$6.5B

EV/EBITDA14.1

Profit Mgn7.0%

ROE5.6%

Rev Growth11.8%

Beta0.17

Dividend2.87%

Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C27.45bearish

IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCommodityfossil-fueled generation25%
10-K Item 1A: 'PNM currently depends on fossil-fueled generation for 25.3% of its electricity'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-03Item 5.02LOW
TXNM Compensation Committee and Board approved 2026 Officer Annual Incentive Plan and other compensatory arrangements for named executive officers on Feb 25-26, 2026. Routine annual compensation disclosure.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.715%0.70

Quality3.415%0.51

Growth5.415%0.81

Momentum6.310%0.63

Sentiment5.210%0.52

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank3.610%0.36

Technical Setup4.85%0.24

Risk Profile5.95%0.30

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)4.77

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roa

1.4

Roe

1.9

Current Ratio

2.2

Operating Margin

2.6

Net Margin

3.5

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

6.7

Gross Margin

7.5

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -467% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.3

Value Rank

2.1

Growth Rank

7.1

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate

RSI

54 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.12Resistance $59.12

Price Targets

$58

A.Upside-1.6%

A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.1% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-01 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TXNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $58.86: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 27.45; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $58.39. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.94 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $58.39. Stop-loss: $58.39.

What are the risks of investing in TXNM?

Target reached (-10.1% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued?

TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.8 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXNM?

12 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy is a New Mexico holding company with two regulated electric utilities—PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in...