TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the TXNM stock price target?

Take-profit $58.29 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $58.95.

Q: What are the risks of investing in TXNM?

Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Q: Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued?

TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.1 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about TXNM?

11 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

Breakout setup

SellModerate ConfidenceUpdated 1 days ago (May 19, 2026, 6:56 AM ET)

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric

TXNM Energy is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM serving New Mexico (generation, transmission, distribution) and TNMP providing transmission and distribution services in Texas, together serving approximately 842,000 customers. A proposed merger with... Read more

$59.43-1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#39 of 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric

QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-9.64%

IncomeYield2.84%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout116.67%at-risk

Stop $58.95Target $58.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1

Analyst target$60.79+2.3%6 analysts

$58.29our TP

$59.43price

$60.79mean

$58

$61

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $59.43: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.

Latest news

Earnings Scheduled For May 1, 2026 — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral
TXNM Energy Q1 Adj. EPS $0.21 Misses $0.30 Estimate, Sales $504.982M Miss $506.240M Estimate — benzinga May 1, 2026 negative

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-11.0% upside)

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.1

P/E (Fwd)18.0

Mkt Cap$6.6B

EV/EBITDA14.1

Profit Mgn6.7%

ROE5.4%

Rev Growth4.6%

Beta0.17

Dividend2.84%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

IV42%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.715%0.70

Quality3.815%0.57

Growth1.915%0.28

Momentum7.010%0.70

Sentiment5.310%0.53

Insider Activity5.110%0.51

Peer Rank2.410%0.24

Technical Setup4.15%0.20

Risk Profile6.95%0.35

Catalyst2.75%0.14

Overall (Σ contributions)4.22

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth

0.0

Revenue Growth

3.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank

0.1

Value Rank

1.6

Growth Rank

2.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Dividend Safety

3.5

Erm

5.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roa

1.4

Roe

1.8

Current Ratio

2.2

Net Margin

3.3

Moat

5.2

Operating Margin

6.1

Piotroski F

6.7

Gross Margin

7.7

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -434% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate

RSI

66 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.26Resistance $59.48

Price Targets

$59

$58

A.Upside-1.9%

A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-07-31 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is TXNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $59.43: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $58.95. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.29 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $58.95. Stop-loss: $58.95.

What are the risks of investing in TXNM?

Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is TXNM overvalued or undervalued?

TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.1 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TXNM?

11 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy is a holding company with two regulated electric utilities: PNM serving New Mexico (generation,...