TXNM Energy is a regulated electric utility that has missed earnings in all four of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 27%, has estimates trending down 34% over 30 days, and is in an RSI-14 capitulation-risk downtrend, while its free cash flow is negative 434% of net income.
Thesis pillars
- Catastrophic Fcf Quality→Stable
- Persistent Earnings Miss Estimate Cuts→Stable
- Capitulation Risk Extreme Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.86: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 101.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.86: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 101.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Top 3 Utilities Stocks Which Could Blast Off In Q2 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Elizabeth Warren Says Private Equity Wants To Profit From AI—And Stick Consumers With The Bill — benzinga Jun 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 1, 2026 — benzinga May 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy Q1 Adj. EPS $0.21 Misses $0.30 Estimate, Sales $504.982M Miss $506.240M Estimate — benzinga May 1, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-07T16:22:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest REPs10-K Item 1: 'the two largest REPs accounted for 24% and 19% of TNMP's operating revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicAlbuquerque metropolitan area41%10-K Item 1: 'The Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, and Santa Fe metropolitan areas accounted for 41.3%, 8.5%, 5.7% and 5.9% of PNM's 2025 revenues'
- MEDIUMregulatoryNMPRC10-K Item 1A: 'The rates PNM charges its customers are regulated by the NMPRC and FERC'
- MEDIUMregulatoryPUCT10-K Item 1A: 'TNMP is regulated by the PUCT'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $56.86: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 101.00; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $55.62. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $58.16 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $55.62. Stop-loss: $55.62.
Target reached (-7.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.4 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover TXNM with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $61.
What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately...
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation; TNMP provides transmission and distribution only under PUCT jurisdiction. A pending merger with Blackstone Infrastructure at $61.25 per share received FERC and PUCT approval in early 2026, with NMPRC proceedings ongoing.