TXNM Energy is a regulated electric utility that has missed earnings in all four of the last four quarters with an average negative surprise of 27%, has estimates trending down 34% over 30 days, and is in an RSI-14 capitulation-risk downtrend, while its free cash flow is negative 434% of net income.
Thesis pillars
- Catastrophic Fcf Quality↑Improving
- Persistent Earnings Miss Estimate Cuts→Stable
- Capitulation Risk Extreme Momentum↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away).
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation;... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 112d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — TXNM Energy, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TXNM Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026
- NEWS TXNM Energy Q3 Adj. EPS $1.62 Beats $1.52 Estimate, Sales $733.290M Beat $730.133M Estimate — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS TXNM Energy faces earnings test ahead of Blackstone merger By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy faces earnings test ahead of Blackstone merger By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TXNM Energy faces earnings test ahead of Blackstone merger By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 29, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertwo largest REPs10-K Item 1: 'the two largest REPs accounted for 24% and 19% of TNMP's operating revenues'
- MEDIUMGeographicAlbuquerque metropolitan area41%10-K Item 1: 'The Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, Los Lunas, and Santa Fe metropolitan areas accounted for 41.3%, 8.5%, 5.7% and 5.9% of PNM's 2025 revenues'
- MEDIUMregulatoryNMPRC10-K Item 1A: 'The rates PNM charges its customers are regulated by the NMPRC and FERC'
- MEDIUMregulatoryPUCT10-K Item 1A: 'TNMP is regulated by the PUCT'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.49 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $57.85. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $52.81 reached (−9.7% from $58.49); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $57.85. Stop-loss: $57.85.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
TXNM Energy, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate TXNM, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $61.
What does TXNM Energy, Inc. do?TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately...
TXNM Energy holds two regulated electric utilities — PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas — serving approximately 842,000 customers with $10.2 billion in projected capital expenditures for 2026-2030. PNM provides generation, transmission, and distribution under NMPRC regulation; TNMP provides transmission and distribution only under PUCT jurisdiction. A pending merger with Blackstone Infrastructure at $61.25 per share received FERC and PUCT approval in early 2026, with NMPRC proceedings ongoing.