Tractor Supply Company trades at a significant discount to analyst targets with 34% upside and a 4.89x risk/reward ratio, supported by a 46% ROE, but consecutive earnings misses in the last two quarters and a confirmed death cross technical pattern create near-term execution and sentiment risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern→Stable
- High Roe Business Quality→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Attractive Rr→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Tractor Supply Company
Latest news
- NEWS TSCO Stock: Analysts Turn Cautious On Tractor Supply After Weak Q1 Print, But Retail Says ‘Oversold’ - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS Tractor Supply Company Stock Continues Uptrend After Delivering 40%-Plus One-Year Asset Appreciation (TSCO) - stockinves — stockinvestor.com positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply to Report Q1 Earnings: Is It Time to Build a Position? - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. Sells 54,601 Shares of Tractor Supply Company $TSCO - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Barclays Reaffirms Their Hold Rating on Tractor Supply (TSCO) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUMTractor Supply Company | | | May 15, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Kurt D. Barton | | | Name: Kurt D. Barton | | | Title: Executive Vice President - Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerSEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $31.70: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $29.82. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $40.30 (+26.9% upside). Prior stop was $29.82. Stop-loss: $29.82.
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 15.6 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $45.
What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract