Tractor Supply Company trades at a significant discount to analyst targets with 34% upside and a 4.89x risk/reward ratio, supported by a 46% ROE, but consecutive earnings misses in the last two quarters and a confirmed death cross technical pattern create near-term execution and sentiment risk.
Thesis pillars
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern↑Improving
- High Roe Business Quality→Stable
- Large Analyst Upside Attractive Rr↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Sell if holding. At $30.91, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.4%.
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply.... Read more
Sell if holding. At $30.91, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Tractor Supply Company
Latest news
- NEWS Tractor Supply (TSCO) Launches Instacart Same Day Delivery From 2,400 Stores - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply Co. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Should Tractor Supply’s Instacart Same-Day Delivery Push Require Action From TSCO Investors? - Sahm — Sahm positive
- NEWS TSCO Maintains Overweight Rating -- Price Target Lowered by Wells Fargo - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Tractor Supply Company Stock Continues Uptrend After Delivering 40%-Plus One-Year Asset Appreciation (TSCO) - stockinves — stockinvestor.com positive
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02MEDIUMTractor Supply Company | | | May 15, 2026 | | By: | /s/ Kurt D. Barton | | | Name: Kurt D. Barton | | | Title: Executive Vice President - Chief Financial Officer and TreasurerSEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $30.91, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 4.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56. Prior stop was $28.86. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.40 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $28.86. Stop-loss: $28.86.
Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Tractor Supply Company trades at a P/E of 14.9 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
37 analysts cover TSCO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $36.
What does Tractor Supply Company do?The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the...
The Company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers, and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle (which we refer to as the "Out Here" lifestyle). We operate retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company and Petsense by Tractor Supply. Our stores are located primarily in towns outlying major metropolitan markets and in rural communities. We also offer an expanded assortment of products through the Tractor Supply mobile application and online at Tract